Coronavirus
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- utopian2
In early August, more than 460,000 motorcycle enthusiasts converged on Sturgis, S.D., for a 10-day celebration where few wore facial coverings or practiced social distancing. A month later, researchers have found that thousands have been sickened across the nation, leading them to brand the Sturgis rally a “superspreader” event.
“The Sturgis Rally was one of the largest in-person gatherings since the outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States,” said Joseph J. Sabia, one of the study’s authors, a professor of economics and the director of the Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies at San Diego State University. He described the “public health costs” of the rally as “substantial and widespread,” which could have infected as many as 266,796 people. He and his co-authors estimate that dealing with the fallout from the rally will involve more than $12 billion in health care costs.
- on a positive note, there are going to be a lot of used motorcycles on the market in a few weeksscarabin
- And a lot fewer trump votes in novemberscarabin
- God, Guns & Country crowd:
AAAANANA NA NA NA NA NANN!PhanLo - Was the largest gathering in the world / during covid. Go USA!BH26
- Ugh there was what like 23 cases. More fake news from you buddy********
- https://reason.com/2…********
- How much money do u make spreading garbage? Curious what kinda be on f scratch this pays. Full time or side hustle********
- but never answers because hes paid to spread this shit********
- utopian0
AstraZeneca temporarily pauses COVID-19 vaccine trial after participant may have suffered adverse reaction
AstraZeneca on Tuesday temporarily halted its phase three trial of a possible coronavirus vaccine after one participant may have suffered from a serious adverse reaction. The potential vaccine was created by the pharmaceutical giant along with Oxford University and is being tested in both the U.K. and the U.S.
- Uhm before trump promised quick vacci e wasn't liberals pushing for quick solutions and mandatory usage. People memories so short********
- "serious neurological condition"Beeswax
- Uhm before trump promised quick vacci e wasn't liberals pushing for quick solutions and mandatory usage. People memories so short
- Bluejam3
- what the fucking fuck are those tory cunts at. imposing lockdown measures at 10:30 on a Tuesday night... gacked off their minds no doubt.kingsteven
- "lets appease some liberals, scoff scoff" wtf data are they looking at... https://www.fil.ion.…kingsteven
- maquito1
Neighbors got noticed COVID-positive couple of days ago. Had to undergo testing. FUCK! It was horrible!!! The swab went straight into the bottom of my eye socket. Really, really disturbing.
- AQUTE4
i lost some friends to this covid corona virus bullshit... because they are ignorant cunts
- kingsteven2
Just reading AQUTE's post there and thought i'd play devils advocate (DISCLAIMER: anyone that actually claims this as fact is talking out their arse, but these are my suspicions about how this is going to play out...)
Right now the UK has lost .06% of it's population to covid and deaths have tapered off to around 15 per day for the last 2 months... If Covid acts like every other pandemic of recent times is likely where it will stay until it can be eliminated by vaccine or just become an annual seasonal nuisance.
The UK govt. has been focusing on increasing testing capacity for months and through track and trace and advisory measures created a culture where localised clusters of the virus get tested leading to a high proportion of positive tests.
The UKs Office of National Statistics on the other hand runs a properly constructed surveillance programme which aims to estimate how many new cases per 2000 people... their model shows no increase in positive cases and only estimates a small increase in the coming weeks due to schools returning...
But we've just gone back into some sort of household lockdown in the UK because the UK govt has no idea what it's doing and is trying to appease an axis of liberals that have spent months formulating their own reactionary bullshit ideas on the virus to combat a narrative of "kill the elderly to save the economy" present in the ruling class... In reality anti-maskers are just incredibly stupid iconoclastically minded, paranoid people that believe they are united against a common enemy.
The unfortunate truth is when Trump in the US says the increase in cases is due to the increase in testing, he's probably totally correct. The US is sitting at exactly the same toll as the UK ATM (.06% of its population dead) - but deaths continue because every estimate of deaths in the US is higher due to its size and demographics (the average American is older, fatter, darker skinned). I think the other big shock to us in the UK is how seriously the average American has taken the pandemic, again probably due to the polarisation of your society. In the UK it was clear that our lockdown measures were only to prevent the overloading of hospitals (so most of us have no clue why they're bringing them back in now.)
If you look at two of the countries with the hardest lockdowns early in the pandemic. Spain and South Korea both are experiencing second waves of deaths...
In the US i'd hazard to guess the second wave (bump?) of death is just the same failure to contain the virus (as experienced everywhere bar New Zealand) spread over a much wider area.
I posted a lot of stuff back in the early days of the pandemic about the models being used.
There was one EEID oxford paper that made the headlines that predicted no second wave however it was built on the assumption that covid sufferers would develop antibodies and that mass scale serology testing would show that a large percentage of people had already had it. That wasn't the case, but we now know that most people fight off the virus without antibodies and form immunity on a shorter term through t-cells so that idea is still totally plausible.
Another paper I posted about how the calculations used to predict herd-immunity are incorrect and used 'toy' models based on actual social activity to suggest that herd immunity could be achieved at levels as low as 20% due to super spreading. If R = 1 as it stands in the UK atm it's actually an average of some socially active people and caregivers spreading to many others, and many other folks not spreading the virus at all... once the superspreaders develop immunity society develops herd immunity.
So AQUTE, if you're falling out with their mates because they're not wearing masks and shouting "KILL THE ELDERLY TO SAVE THE ECONOMY" fuck those cunts. But if they have genuine concerns about measures effectively prolonging the spread of the disease and just think it's all a pile of bullshit but while still erring on the side of caution... the situation in the US could well be <100 deaths p/d in just a few weeks, so best not loose mates by taking sides right now - as we really still don't know shit about how this is going to play out.
- posted south korea graph twice, meant to post US deaths: https://imgur.com/uy…kingsteven
- Sounds like Sweden had it rightGnash
- I think so, more to the point I think Neil Ferguson should be jailed for enjoying the smell of his own farts.kingsteven
- i envy the energy you put into researching this stuff. I feel like there's so much junky or misinterpreted science out there. hard to keep upGnash
- @kingsteven Isn't most of the world including Sweden still practicing social distancing though? I wonder how much of the leveling off is due to thatyuekit
- as opposed to a natural burning out or herd immunity effect. In the USA at least, the second wave was definitely correlated with people thinking it was overyuekit
- and reopening businesses, restaurants and bars...many of which were then closed again and are still closed.yuekit
- Look at California for instance
https://www.latimes.…yuekit - lockdown is pointless but i'm not knocking social distancing, basic hygiene... you've got to realise all 3 are privileges not afforded to front-line workers.kingsteven
- a shop assistant gets it and passes it on to 10 people. one patient in palliative care gets it and caregivers with inadequate PPE spread it around. if you don'tkingsteven
- factor in the magnitude of social activity that exists to keep services running for the rest of us and who is dying and where you're overestimating the riskkingsteven
- what you see in the US graph is not a second wave but the first wave of states that went in to lockdown early... masks, distancing are what YOU can do to helpkingsteven
- Yeah I'm sure there's some of that. Just think you have to factor in that the current situation is not anything close to normal in terms of human interaction.yuekit
- slow the spread, flatten the curve but the deaths (past the peak/ overwhelming of hospital services) are largely inevitable. measures may just be prolongingkingsteven
- the crisis, delaying the return to normalcy.kingsteven
- Take a look here for example, cell phone data from US states showing the drop in human interactions:
https://topagency.co…yuekit - Seems like in most states degree of social contact is about half what it would be in normal times.yuekit
- I couldn't find any recent info from Sweden but according to this report, people did in fact change their behavior significantly earlier this year...yuekit
- https://arxiv.org/pd…yuekit
- yep, i know but it's catch 22. if you have the means and intelligence to distance you are probably not a super spreader. infections stem from central points...kingsteven
- supermarkets, public transport, care facilities. the people that work in these places can not distance appropriately... just 1 visit per week to a supermarketkingsteven
- per household totally undermines lockdown measures. also the eeid paper mentioned theorises that the virus spread undetected in europe for months...kingsteven
- this does not seem to be the case in most central US states. The difference between NY or Seattle and Ohio is down to catching it early/ flattening the curve...kingsteven
- by Seattle I mean King County (ie. the epicentre on the west coast)kingsteven
- deaths in most states already nearly plateaued, 3 weeks and you'll see. it'll be below 200 deaths p/d by the election.kingsteven
- Aren't there additional vectors of transmission that are being held back right now though? Such as bars, restaurants, churches, concerts, etc.yuekit
- Now that we are living this socially distanced lifestyle, I'm sure you're right that the main mode of transmission are the essential workers that people stillyuekit
- come into contact with. But if everything reopens and we go back to 2019 existence tomorrow, I don't see why there wouldn't be a big surge in additional cases.yuekit
- yeah, i think if it comes down to 'has distancing protected some venerable people' i agree 100%. but given that there's a correlation between the most venerablekingsteven
- (the elderly and infirm) and social isolation, it's incredibly rare for asymptomatic infected to pass it on, 10% of infected cause 80% of cases, where they'vekingsteven
- traced all contacts it turns out you are very unlikely to spread to anyone (4 - 20% chance of household transmission, just slightly higher for spouses). wherekingsteven
- they have traced clusters to one individual, they have been experiencing symptoms at the time of transmission. there is definitely an argument to be made thatkingsteven
- apart from isolating when you feel ill and exercising good hygine. all other measures (distancing, masks) while not ineffective are moot once deaths plateau.kingsteven
- of course thats not a reason not to wear a mask. but also, in america the mask war is political on both sides and it's prob. not worth loosing friends over...kingsteven
- OK I think I get what you're saying...society as it is normally structured is actually good at protecting vulnerable groups, whereas some of the actions takenyuekit
- by governments actually put more people at risk? That's an interesting take on it. It does seem like "the experts" are still all over the map in terms of howyuekit
- things will unfold, some predicting it will get significantly worse in fall/winter or that this will drag on for some time. Hopefully you are right though andyuekit
- we can start to get back to normal sooner.yuekit
- it seems that many people are still observing what is happening through the lens of the ICL study (what i was alluding to with my comment about neil ferguson)kingsteven
- this was the study for the UK govt. that was then adapted for the US and sent us all in to lockdown (which was a wise situation with the information we had atkingsteven
- the time) but the more I looked in to his methodology (it's actually impossible to know exactly because he wrote the program 13 years ago and couldn't rememberkingsteven
- how it worked himself) the same paper also predicts multiple waves - I took it as gospel until i read how basic the model was and how many assumptions were madekingsteven
- then reading Neil Ferguson's previous predictions for CJD, Swine Flu that were off by 13000%... (65k deaths predicted: 500 actual)kingsteven
- then in hindsight thinking about how the clustered nature and social factors that have been observed in different studies (some of which i've stated above) justkingsteven
- aren't taken in to consideration in models and herd-immunity calculations. which work well for the flu because everyone can get it and spread it...kingsteven
- so, you end up in a situation where the same people that say "its not like the flu" are using estimates that treat it like the flu. and folks that don't believekingsteven
- in herd-immunity at all because boris and trump both tried to pass it as policy (dick move) or don't believe in superspreaders because it's a victimising term!kingsteven
- just cant comprehend how a mask may not actually be that useful (other than indicating that you give a shit about your fellow man)kingsteven
- of course if you are one of the <10% infected that is a super spreader and you feel ill and you want to be in an enclosed space with other people ORkingsteven
- you have a respiratory disease that may worsen your outcome then you're exactly the 2 kinds of people that don't wear a mask in public :Dkingsteven
- What's is typical us death per day?********
- ********4
192,616 confirmed kills in the Unites States. No end in sight. Guaranteed to hit 200k before the end of September.
The richest country in the world had the worst possible response.
Shame on Trump. Shame on Fox News and the conservative media machine. Shame on everyone who downplayed this.
Two hundred thousand Americans in the ground. No end in sight.
- so is this downvoted to say "this sucks, I don't like this news," or to say "I don't agree or believe this?"mg33
- Surely there are already 200k dead, many states don't report anymoregrafician
- Newest modeling has between 420,000 and 500,000 dead in the USA by Christmas and News Year's timeframe.utopian
- let's get the US legal machine in motion and suit the fuck out of the government_niko
- *sue_niko
- We are all already dead, there are just robots sending you stories on social media to entertain you and give you purpose.toemaas
- that happens when u have a prez. who downplays it as a democratic hoax. scumbags on top.neverscared
- Remember that it’s only the richest country in the world for a select few.ben_
- Remeber the excess deaths are way less than that number. And as a percentage about .o4%. but unemployment is far greater at 25%. Makes u think who's really gett********
- I think shame on on all political media. Across the board irrational measures and measuring sticks and goals been placed pending on votes and potential blame********
- The people in the us have never been taken for such a ride. Other countries y
Par for the course but here it's unprecedented and awful******** - And u gotta rember nb usually 1.5mill deaths on average from top ten med killers********
- Why excess deaths mostly from dementia alszeimar are interesting. It would show a decline in the following years from base avg********
- And by numbers see probably back to base on a 3-4 year trend. Meaning a blip on radar for death count. But the economic********
- Portion and political fallout will be felt for probably next 20-50years. Or forever looking at the past and still suffering from those failures********
- And I wonder what is a good response. What u think is correct vs current********
- "I like all pussy." - deathboy.Khurram
- PhanLo3
- jesus fucking christ!face_melter
- watmoldero
- I can't help but lol... even after reading this.
https://images-na.ss…fadein11 - that book blew my mind, it's not remotely a true crime, pulp, moneymaking exercise. It's brilliant but also one of the most disturbing things I have ever read.fadein11
- Heh heh.calculator
- @fade my mate read that too, didn't he abuse farm animals with his dad as a a kid or something?PhanLo
- a lot of animal cruelty. Abusive family. Head injury as a child. I hate to say read it but do, the writer is brilliant.
https://www.theguard…fadein11 - that review is spot on.fadein11
- ********-2
- utopian2
Fauci tells Americans to ‘hunker down’ this fall and winter: ‘It’s not going to be easy.
- You know, he once said masks weren’t necessary so his entire career dedication to his field of expertise is no longer valid.monospaced
- I hope u are being ironic monotank02
- we know his reasoning at the time but mono has a fair pointmoldero
- regardless, strap yourselves in boys, this winter's gonna be very interesting.moldero
- the next few months are going to be tough.fadein11
- Scientific study drives constant revisions as we learn more. Same with pandemics. Fauci is moving with the data, as he should.evilpeacock
- Yep he was maybe the first to say covid could be contracted by air flying particles********
- America will be knee deep in this shit inject year because Trump, Fox News and conservatives refuse to back science as well as wear fucking masks.utopian
- They all have medical conditionsmoldero
- Or get "sick" in the summer and sweat it out in a day or two.AQUTE
- covid is not the flu, cold weather will probably not change anything and a lot of experts do not expect a second wave... flu deaths may even be lower this year.kingsteven
- but yes, winter is coming. and probably for fauci if there's a new administration.kingsteven
- I was being sarcastic. Fauci is an expert and anything false he said was because of pressure from his fucked administration of science denying fucktards.monospaced
- At the time, the US was about the only country not telling people to wear masks. How many levels of stupid is the US?CyBrainX
- na, you guys would be shocked. it was 10th of August before they became mandatory in shops here, id say its about 70% wear them at all and pretty much everyonekingsteven
- not really, they only became mandatory here on the 10th of August... even the out of the 60-70% that wear them at all, most just put them on outside the shop orkingsteven
- getting on the train/ bus. jaysus thought that comment had disappeared in to the ether as it wasn't showing last night...kingsteven
- whatthefunk1
- What's the news here? "Toddlers spread viruses just as much as anyone else"? Well, doh!microkorg
- For parents and families toddlers/kids in care are are potential MASSIVE spreaders. Everyone else you keep your distance from or wear masks with. But with ...microkorg
- ...your kids the chances are you'll get a huge viral load from them as they are always in your face, playing, spraying (lol), cuddling.microkorg
- Any parent will tell you the first few years of a kids life they spread EVERY cold, flu, virus around the household. Someone's always got a runny nose! lol.microkorg
- i read in to this report when it came out. conducted by the CDC from breakout reports, no visits to the facilities to check policies. one had 5 staff, all hadkingsteven
- staff members that tested positive first, all had face to face interaction between parents and staff. and even then less than 15% of kids infected, passed onkingsteven
- 25% of people in their household. one hospitalisation. "reconstructing transmission chains" is bullshit if you don't have the right data.kingsteven
- a lot of policy on covid is directed by a paper that came out early in the outbreak with similar anecdotal evidence of how a breakout occurred in a care homekingsteven
- this paper didn't mention superspreading at all as it wasn't known at that point but theorises with no solid evidence that patients in the early asymptomatickingsteven
- phase "may have contributed to the spread", then through the magic of addition using evidence from china that 80% of cases came from <10% of patientskingsteven
- (which should have invalidated the original study) to advent the asymptomatic superspreader... and every health protection agency has been grasping at straws tokingsteven
- prove their existence ever since.kingsteven
- "new study is evidence that even younger kids can still spread the virus despite not getting sick" troubling considering young ones cannot wear masks...whatthefunk
- ^ it was conducted during a localised breakout and didn't take in to consideration direct contact between staff and parents... but it was found that all daycarekingsteven
- facilities there was contact when the kids were dropped off and picked up. it does not prove a transmission chain through the children...kingsteven
- it is simply evidence that "they may". i'd imagine they do the slobbery wee gits.kingsteven
- grafician1
"How the Coronavirus Attacks the Brain
It’s not just the lungs — the pathogen may enter brain cells, causing symptoms like delirium and confusion, scientists reported."
"The coronavirus targets the lungs foremost, but also the kidneys, liver and blood vessels. Still, about half of patients report neurological symptoms, including headaches, confusion and delirium, suggesting the virus may also attack the brain.
A new study offers the first clear evidence that, in some people, the coronavirus invades brain cells, hijacking them to make copies of itself. The virus also seems to suck up all of the oxygen nearby, starving neighboring cells to death.
It’s unclear how the virus gets to the brain or how often it sets off this trail of destruction. Infection of the brain is likely to be rare, but some people may be susceptible because of their genetic backgrounds, a high viral load or other reasons.
“If the brain does become infected, it could have a lethal consequence,” said Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University who led the work."
- pretty much every virus is known to cause neurological damage. cold, flu, herpes, measles, HIV... but sure, ATTACKS THE BRAIN it is! :Dkingsteven
- ********-7
- Why would anyone downvote this?********
- cuz your on the other side i guess, they're gonna start burning tires because of youmoldero
- Because you are a toolbag and a troll.utopian
- its one side or the other, no one thinks anymore.moldero
- Fake!grafician
- Because you're a fanny.face_melter
- Because you’re a turd in
the punchbowl, bobo.Ramanisky2
- Why would anyone downvote this?
- Ramanisky23
The Law & Order SuperSpreader in Chief.
- L E G E N DPhanLo
- Would it be wrong if I said I hope they all get COVID and die a slow horrible death?
Probably...BusterBoy - looks like he is trying to eat them all in one go..neverscared
- fuck the restriction. so arbitrary when home depot can hist more people. i hope sisolak gets sued personally same way he sued mccarren airport for his money********
- but probably scares some pollsters at turn out and reading ppl wrong again********
- We need MORE trump rallies. BIGGER trump rallies. MASK-FREE trump ralliesscarabin
- utopian0
Trump officials interfered with CDC reports on Covid-19
The politically appointed HHS spokesperson and his team demanded and received the right to review CDC’s scientific reports to health professionals.
The health department’s politically appointed communications aides have demanded the right to review and seek changes to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly scientific reports charting the progress of the coronavirus pandemic, in what officials characterized as an attempt to intimidate the reports’ authors and water down their communications to health professionals.
- grafician0
"Adar Poonawalla, CEO of world's largest vaccine manufacturer told us pharma groups not increasing production capacity quickly enough, meaning there will not be sufficient doses of Covid-19 shot to vaccinate everyone until end 2024 at earliest"
"The Serum Institute of India has said adequate coronavirus vaccine will not be available for everybody in the world to be immunised until the end of 2024.
The chief executive of the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines, Adar Poonawalla, has said dampened the hopes of a COVID-19 vaccine by year-end in an interview with the Financial Times. He said that pharma firms were not ramping up production capacity swiftly to be able to innoculate the world population in less duration.
“It’s going to take four to five years until everyone gets the vaccine on this planet,” Poonawalla was quoted as saying. He had earlier predicted that if the coronavirus shot is a two-dose vaccine, as is the case with measles or rotavirus, then the world would require 15 billion doses."
https://www.ft.com/content/a832d…
https://www.wionews.com/india-ne…
-
So we're done here...
- it was always a load of bullshit, i certainly wouldn't be taking a vaccine for a few years until proved safe and the virus better understood...kingsteven
- still absolutely no reason to expect a second wave of deaths, no long lasting immunity or significant long term side effects...kingsteven
- Trumpf will not be happy, he'll spin it a different way.utopian
- all he needs to say is what i just said tbf. im not even sure where the idea of pursuing mass vaccination came from... Gov't? CDC? Pharma?kingsteven
