Coronavirus
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- sted0
The World Health Organization Will Livestream on TikTok
It is scheduled for 8 a.m. ET Tuesday, March 17- Why not Youtube?section_014
- how to not kill your grandparentskingsteven
- i have no idea why youtube failed completely to take part in this.sted
- it's live on youtube tookingsteven
- Who?PonyBoy
- ah thanks that's good news. they just failed partially :)sted
- on a side-note i hear that microsoft and google is busy running the education tools for various countries.sted
- zaq0
Visualize the growth of COVID-19 on our map (US based)
- PonyBoy13
meanwhile...
- ********0
- utopian2
"Half Of America Will Get Sick": Here Is What Goldman Told 1,500 Clients In Its Emergency Sunday Conference Call
50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.
70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.
Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.
The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.
Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.
Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.
There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.
China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.
Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.
S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.
There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.
In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.
Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.
There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008.
- makes comparison to cold virus in second paragraph, by 5th paragraph we're magically developing immunity...kingsteven
- the reason old folks are more venerable is that they have previous immunity to other strains and their body fighting the illness triggers a cytolytic stormkingsteven
- while i'm no expert, i've seen no definitive answer on immunity from an expert and evidence would suggest that the more strains you've been exposed to the lesskingsteven
- likely you are to develop it.kingsteven
- I’m a lifelong nail biter and hoping that’s the case lol_niko
- So they just casually projected 3 million dead in the USA alone?yuekit
- Ramanisky20
- Companies asking employees to give their sick time to other employees: Whole Foods.Akagiyama
- Also NBA player gives money to affected stadium employees .. but not the teams owner?Ramanisky2
- No sick pay means they come in and infect more people.PhanLo
- The real sickness is capitalism._niko
- Ramanisky23
10 maybe 15 minutes from where I live.
- It's like a petri dishSteveJobs
- Yeah they closed Miami area beaches and Ft Lauderdale area beaches but kept Tampa beaches open ... SMART.Ramanisky2
- Aren't just very young and healthy people living in Florida?...sandpipe
- Hopefully that'll drain the swamp a bit ;-)Hayzilla
- BabySnakes-2
To me, he is telling the truth that would cause panic if told by our leadership.
We're on the ride now and can't say exactly how this will go down.
- some top medical guy in the uk said they need to devolve responsibility to local agencies, like they did during the wwiitrooperbill
- Please don’t listen to conspiracy theorists like this. He’s not a professional anything. He’s a comedian actor.monospaced
- He wasn't spitting out conspiracy, it was mostly logic reasoning.BabySnakes
- yuekit0
Goldman Sachs: "The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather."
Is this true? Countries within that range: China, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Spain, France, United States...
- there is no evidence about that right now.api
- i wouldn‘t bet on this...we don‘t know.uan
- lack of testing...but also widespread customs of good hygiene in population could be a factoruan
- Frankly, an investment bank is the proably the 2nd last place I'd turn to for facts about this pestilence.Continuity
- 20-something African countries are just getting their first cases now.i_monk
- The vast majority of earth population is between 30-50 north latitude, meaning the virus likes people********
- You have to keep in mind that "prefers cold weather" does not mean it will not reach hot countries. Hot weather does not instantly cure infected or makeyuekit
- transmission impossible. If this is true it just means that the virus will have a harder time reaching epidemic levels in those places.yuekit
- Krassy1
Page 333 of a 1981 book by author Dean Koontz "predicting" killer bug pandemic
- 333 + 1981 = 2314
2314 - 2020 = 294
There were 294 deaths in Hubei
Source: https://www.reuters.…deadsperm
- 333 + 1981 = 2314
- Ramanisky2-3
This is a very cool idea.
- Fax_Benson-3
I don't particularly need a haircut at the moment but thinking that I might not be able to get one for months. Lockdown's a nightmare for barbers. Anyone get their haircut and speak to a barber over the weekend?
- grunge is coming back!uan
- and...we have a first world problems thread for this :-Puan
- You could always turn the situation into a positive, and go for this kind of impressive mane:
https://i.imgur.com/…Continuity - Get this:
https://www.amazon.c…shapesalad - and this:
https://www.amazon.c…shapesalad - I've cut my hair with that for the past 5 years, cost me £30, and so estimate I've saved £1800 based on £30 per month haircuts.shapesalad
- Please buy the DOXMAL Barber Cloak Gown Umbrella Hair Salon Cape Nylon Haircut DIY Hair Cutting Cloak Bib Haircut Apron, use it and post pics, fax. Please.Nairn
- haha. I'm generally way too shy for such a thing but given the circumstances, I'll consider it.Fax_Benson
- Same boat, but don't want a haircut until society asks me to leave the house again.********
- fkn lolllinteliboy
- last thing I need at the moment is to be worried about the broken hair off the floor, and be afriad that broom can't sweep awayFax_Benson
