Russia-Ukraine Invasion
Out of context: Reply #921
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"Was China Betting on Russian Defeat All Along?"
"China has been seen by many as the most important ally of Russia in the invasion of Ukraine. However, after nearly two weeks of fighting, confusing episodes have been culminating around China’s attitude to the war. Regarding both the UN Security Council and General Assembly resolutions, China has abstained rather than voted on the side of Russia. Regarding the sanctions on Russia, China hasn’t shown much of a willingness to help thus far, and two major Chinese banks, the Bank of China and the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, have even refused to help Russia process export transactions. Instead of supporting Russia, Chinese minister of foreign affairs, Wang Yi has called for de-escalation of the conflict. China seems to be pulling back its support from Russia, everywhere from diplomacy to economics.
On the other hand, however, Chinese statements right before the war seemed to have indicated Beijing’s full support for Moscow, and the fact that Russia waited for the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics seems to confirm rumors that Xi asked Putin to do so, indicating in turn that China was fully aware of what was coming, and decided to support it in full knowledge. Thus: Full support for the invasion before it started, but then a gradual pulling back once the invasion was underway – What’s going on here? Did China change its mind due to some unexpected occurrence?
What if nothing such happened, but it was a consistent strategy to encourage Russia to attack at first, but roll back its support after the war has started? Knowing the history of Sino-Russian relations, a Russian victory doesn’t seem to be in China’s interest. What is in China’s interest is a prolonged war of attrition, draining Russia’s resources as much as possible, weakening it as much as possible, meanwhile isolating it from the West as much as possible, and with a Russian defeat at the end."
- hmm... basing on all that on things reported in news and info in public domain. No idea what happens behind closed doors....shapesalad
- No way China or anyone could have predicted the ruin it would cause Russia. Ukraine war is NOT good for China. Been reading Peter Zeihan on the subj.mandomafioso
- https://twitter.com/…mandomafioso
- @mando you have any linkage? cuz I think China had to have a better assessment of Russia's Military incompetence than the NATO allies did.jonny_quest_lives
- Probably the only benefit of the US perpetual "War on Terror" was the modernization/retask... of US Armed forces into the most lethal/nimble fighting force.jonny_quest_lives
- China is now in the awkward position of having to vastly increase their internal military spending knowingjonny_quest_lives
- Russia would not be able to deal with NATO in any conventional armed combat.jonny_quest_lives
- So now US military is like "see we told you China is the near peer adversary we always warned you about. The myth of the Russian military is deflating daily.jonny_quest_lives
- and it took the US completely by surprise... now the risk is how desperate does Putin get as he's kind of cornered on this whole shitshow.jonny_quest_lives
- China always reaped the benefits of US Strategic interests being tied up in Afghanistan, The Middle East and Putin messing about in Ukraine.jonny_quest_lives
- China might have signed on to the 48hr overthrow version of this war. I don’t think anyone figured Russia would sell their fuel for vodka in Belarus.monNom
- I doubt China, or anyone, has things this well planned out. According to this article, the Chinese military modeled itself on Russian military, many of China'syuekit
- top officials speak Russian, they share similar tactics and doctrines.
https://menafn.com/1…yuekit - So a Russian defeat or stalemate in Ukraine makes China look bad as well and throws the idea of invading Taiwan into question.yuekit
- It would be China's undoing. Taiwan has more SAMs than Ukraine. Plus it's across a vast expanse of water. Only way to take it is amphibious assault. Impossible.mandomafioso
- Follow this guy. I haven't seen anyone with a more clear-eyed, if slightly pessimistic view of geopolitics than him. https://twitter.com/…mandomafioso
- I've listened to a lot of analysis on Taiwan, and there are sharply divergent views even among US military. Some seem to think China will be able to overwhelmyuekit
- Taiwan with sheer numbers, while denying USA and others access to the region. However the CCP leadership is more cautious than loose cannon Putin,yuekit
- and Taiwan invasion is something that is always five or ten years in the future. Watching Ukraine will make them think twice about all the things that canyuekit
- go wrong in such a "special operation." Taiwan's best hope is simply to outlast Xi and hope China eventually returns to a more moderate path.yuekit
- Nostradamus predicted it allinteliboy