Russia-Ukraine Invasion

Out of context: Reply #856

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  • drgs2

    I think the culprit to how far this invasion has escalated were FSB's false reports about pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine.

    Putin anticipated to have a quick 3-day victory and maybe did not want this massacre to begin with. He is now busy cleansing the ranks of his FSB agents, but in the long term he's trapped and does not know what to do. He can't abort now.

    However successful the Ukrainian army is, I think Russia is still quantitatively superior, even if they win by showering Ukraine with Russian corpses.

    The only good scenario is that Putin is overthrown by a gang of high-ranking FSB officers followed by some decorative revolution and they elect some internationally recognized leader like Navalny in his place.

    Worst case Russia wins and Putin has no choice but to build Gulag v2.0 to keep his power, the greatest prison of peoples in the world.

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    drgs 2Permalink
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    • yeah I don't see what Putin's end game is here, even if he "wins" he loses.
      A pyrrhic victory is his best case scenario.      _niko
    • Ukraine military is amazingly badass considering they have less fire-power but they may win and push Russia back fully. Putin will be butthurt and launch nukes.NBQ00
    • the russians are too lazy / stupid / frightened to do anything about it.

      they just destroy things out of malice.

      this is the russian way      hans_glib
    • I hope not. At least he can't launch them alone. And hopefully there'll be a coup and somebody kills him.NBQ00
    • are pro-Putin nationalists going to be any less hostile to a west approved Navalny figure than to Zalensky? Making Putin a martyrFax_Benson
    • could create civil war across Russia?Fax_Benson
    • Putin is apparently closer to "winning" in the South, so plan B could be to simply annex more territory from Ukraine in that region.yuekit
    • And rile up a whole range of dickheads.Fax_Benson
    • A friend of mine has close relatives in Russia and they have no idea what the plan was supposed to be.Fax_Benson
    • He's flattened the bit he wants to keep.Fax_Benson
    • yuekit, he can't annex the south this time because Ukraine isn't accepting it like they did with Crimea (even if they didn't officially) in a full out war.NBQ00
    • There'll be counter-attacks in that area and constant ambushes. Russia won't be able to hold those parts.NBQ00
    • Crimea was mostly Russians, and Ukraine cut their water after the annexation. But no mistakes, Crimea is still Ukraine territory at the end of the day
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    • The more privations you pile onto Russia, the harder their resolve.
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    • The sunk cost deepens by the day.. eventually things will go nuclear.
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    • Why do you care?
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