The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
- Started
- Last post
- 9 Responses
- Midge
I got it, read first 10 pages. sounds like worthless more crap that sweeps america every now and then under the guise of being "deep" - but that could just be my mood today.
Anyone read it? should I continue?
- thebottlerocket0
Read his first book which talks about the 'black swans' principle in there. It was imcomprehensible in parts and mildly amusing in others and didn't seem to offer any great insight. He seems to over-write, which makes it pretty hard going.
- skt0
was reading about this guy at the weekend. he was dismissed by a lot of people working in the markets, until recently. they are now paying him $60,000 a time to talk.
as far as i could tell, his basic theory on everything is that nothing can be predicted, so building complex models trying to do just that, is a waste of time. not exactly ground breaking.
- Midge0
great, you both saved me two weeks. its in the bin (recycling bin that is). thanks.
- mirola0
It's interesting that he's a philosopher and a market analyst at the same time, I think he dealt in futures or something. The book would have made a better essay than a book. The whole thing just says that it's really jolly well hard to predict anything at all.
- he set up his own hedge fund... but i don't think it did so well.skt
- thebottlerocket0
Thats all his first book is too!
- harlequino0
I read a little of of this guy's stuff. I'll take Douglas Rushkoff any day over him. More fun too.
- stem0
I've read "fooled by randomness" and thought it was a good read. Some of the details was lost on me, not having any inside knowledge of the trading floor, but the general story of the book while not lifting up any trees was interesting. I wouldn't call it hard going and it's certainly not 'deep'. Just a guy drawing on his experience to show how things are not as fail-safe and predictable as we think they are.
I bought "The Black Swan" on friday, haven't started it yet...
- TheBlueOne0
I've read both "fooled by randomness" and "Black Swan" - interesting ideas, although I think he takes up way too much space to explain some very simple concepts (the impact of unforseen events). He has a point, but I think he grinds it too finely. For a different take on a similar line of thinking I'd suggest Stuart Kauffman's "At Home In The Universe"
http://www.amazon.com/At-Home-Un…
Not financial at all, but Kauffman was around at the beginning of the whole "chaos/complexity" science thing and he has some pretty neat ideas about the stuff as it pertains to biology, physical & cultural systems.
Or on the finance/economics tip with complexity/prediction and chaos theory, W. Brian Arthur is a great, if kinda brainy wonky read:
- stem0
Yeah, I agree 'fooled by randomness' could have been more to the point. I think the version I have has additions to it too. I just hope "The Black Swan" isn't just covering old ground.
The trouble with these sorts of books is that they are not all out entertainment and have to be written with a degree of intellectual rigor, which can often lead to a very good book being padded out with peer related stuff.
This book is one of those cross-over successes, which would firstly have had to gain the acceptance of the economics community before it went mainstream.
It's a fine balance that I guess is really difficult to get right.
- I think it's success is because of the nifty swan graphic on the cover and the clean black & white coloring motif.TheBlueOne