Shooting of the Day
Out of context: Reply #2644
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- Bennn2
The United States is collapsing
The specter of a new civil war is not impossible now.
In a commercial posted two weeks ago, a former Missouri governor, Eric Greitens, announces, rifle in hand, that the hunting season for "RINOs" is open and urges the public to participate.
The risks of violence are omnipresent in the minds of several observers of American political life, who are alarmed at the risk of further abuses while the January 6 commission analyzes the underside of the Capitol assault.
Some analysts even go so far as to warn against the possibility of a new “civil war” in the United States.
Stephen Marche, Canadian writer and journalist, discussed this possibility in a book called The Next Civil War , which explores through various scenarios - including an attack targeting the president, a dirty bomb attack or an environmental disaster - how the situation could escalate and lead to a wave of large-scale violence.
“The collapse is going to happen faster and more suddenly than anyone predicts, but it won't be a surprise. America is cracking on all sides, ”says Mr. Marche.
He evokes the failures of the electoral system, the extreme tension between elected officials and supporters of the Republican and Democratic camps, the loss of confidence of Americans in political and judicial institutions, the accessibility of weapons, the fear of the decline of part of the white population and the proliferation of far-right militias as factors likely to fuel a serious crisis.
The political system would need to be reformed in depth to put the country back on track, but the avenues to achieve this seem blocked.
The USA isnt a Democracy anymore... it's now an Anocracy.
Barbara F. Walter, a researcher at the University of California, San Diego, also issues a warning about the evolution of American democracy in a recent book entitled How Civil Wars Start.
The author warns that the country "is closer to civil war than many Americans would like to believe".
She mentions in particular in support of her analysis the fact that the United States regressed democratically during the mandate of Donald Trump to become at the end of 2020 an "anocracy", an intermediate stage between authoritarian regime and democracy, on a scale ranging from -10 to 10 produced by the Center for Systemic Peace (CSP).
This research institute, long funded by the US government, concluded that the country's rating was then 5, the upper limit of the anocracy zone, while it has been for decades in the democratic zone between 8 and 10.
The risks of large-scale violence are higher in an anocracy, Ms. Walter explains, in part because the government is often too weak to respond effectively to the needs of the population and at the same time suppress the actions of radical groups.
The potential for drift is even greater in a context of extreme political polarization.
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Percentage of voters who believe that violent action against the government can sometimes be justified
Democrats: 23%
Independents: 41%
Republicans: 40%
Source: University of Maryland
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In numbers
58% of Republicans see the Democrats in a "very unfavorable" way (21% in 1994)
55% of Democrats see Republicans in a “very unfavorable” way (17% in 1994)
Source: Pew Research
- Civil War is so far from the worst case scenario for the US. I'd say it's probably in the top half of positive outcomes.CyBrainX
- But a formal separation without war is possible. That's by far the best case scenario. Don't even pretend this country, as is can ever get better.CyBrainX
- The problem with the split is the states that borrow more fed dollars are red, where the states that make fed money are blue.aliastime
- Well, that's a problem for the states that are the problem. I'm not feeling any sympathy.CyBrainX
- I just don’t see anyone taking sides over anything worth warring over. Abortion isn’t that.monospaced
- nothing like a war to bring the people together, wonder which war USA could join right now...shapesalad
- 99% think it's ok to take up arms against people that take up arms. I'll be one of those and have been considering buying a gun...just in case.formed
- Downward SpiralBennn