Russia-Ukraine Invasion
Out of context: Reply #1417
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- drgs0
Could Russia adopt US model?
https://www.facebook.com/MBK3133…
(Khodorkovsky was Russia's wealthiest man in 2003, when Putin had him charged for fraud. He was released in 2013.)A few days ago I got to talk about the future of Russia. The topic, in my opinion, is important because before the change of this regime, there will be no reliable peace in Europe, but after it is changed - it all depends on how this change happens.
So, in my opinion, four management models with predictable development of the situation are possible:1. Putinians retain power after Putin's departure. Russia is continuing its imperial politics. Because Putin needs an external enemy to consolidate society and collect tributes from the regions at the amount of 60% of taxes and then distribute money in exchange for loyalty, the civil and imperialist wars continue. Everything is sad. The country will catch up if it does not burn in the flames of nuclear war. But when it gets enough, if it doesn't burn, it will go to one of the remaining three options.
2. The country will definitely fall apart. Its debris will create 5-7 nuclear states that will get controversial administrative boundaries and will likely fight for their expansion. War is likely to go nuclear in case of internationalization of the conflict.
3. Instead of Putins, anti-Putins will come to power, who will try to create a United Democratic Russia. Same eggs - side view.
The attempt to support the West will not be successful, as the West has lost its enthusiasm in Gorbachev's era and in exchange for support will require such geopolitical concessions that cannot be provided immediately.
And the support cannot be so large - the country is too big. The West has quite a few dangers, too.
So the process of convergence will be slow and problematic, and the power must be retained now.
And then you need an enemy. First internal and it will be - communists, patriots, security forces, rebellious or corrupt regional elites, then - external, because the fight against the internal is a fight of the democratic minority against a very different majority and will result in a to the starting point - of authoritarian coercion.4. Option four - federalization on the example of the United States. Population of regions or agglomerations of regions - I estimate 15-20 of them, become a source of power and re-establish the federal center from their representatives to solve general issues.
Perhaps, a part of this federal center will become federal parties representing those people who consider themselves first communists, liberals or patriots, and only then residents of Volga, Siberians or the Far East. I doubt that there will be more than 30% of them.It is important that all these people are not on their own, but only represent the interests of their trustees and can be recalled.
I have been a staunch supporter of the fourth model since February 24. Weimar syndrome is guaranteed to us and any model where a populist can win at the federal level, rather than a coalition of regional political entities, will undoubtedly lead to an attempted revenge. Or the detention of the unjustly conquered.Revenge or even an attempt to hold the conquered return us to the starting point - confrontations with the Western world, authoritarianism and collapse.
We, the pro-European part of Russian society and the West, will have to come to terms with the fact that Russia after Putin will remain politically and economically multifaceted: on one pole there are quite European agglomerations, on the other - "electoral sultanates" with them, in more or less, through genital-tribal relations (sometimes in the transition to feudalism).An attempt to jump over this or similar abyss in one jump was made by many, including the Bolsheviks. The relative fortunes I know are related to occupation (India) or gosterror (Stalin) are not our case.
So it is necessary to come to terms with yourself, seek consensus on common issues and hope for the strength of an example in the matter of democratization of regions. The main thing is that the parliament from the regions will not allow to spend money on foreign adventures. And not because they are particularly beautiful people there - just interests, as well as the source of legitimacy in the regions other than consolidation in the face of an external (relatively Russia) enemy.
Well, what about the risks? The risks are huge - and to fall back into authoritarianism and to collapse the country. And the price is not small - without blood, I hope it is small, it will not cost all this. However, having started an aggressive war, threatening the world with nuclear weapons one after another, Putin has made a big bet that retaliation is inevitable and we all have to pay.