The Russia thread.
The Russia thread.
Out of context: Reply #691
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Lots of discussions about the threat of nuclear war from the Kremlin and whether Putin is rational. I share my thoughts in this thread.
To frame:
I do not believe Russia would use nuclear weapons and I believe Putin is a rational actor.To understand why the invasion was rational for Putin, we have to step into his shoes. Three beliefs came together at the same time in his calculus:
1. Ukraine’s condition as a country
2. Russian military’s condition
3. The West’s geopolitical condition- Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a debt default is imminent********
- Rational and irrational can be interchangeable depending on the frame of reference. Using nukes or bio weapons makes you look pretty formidable...monNom
- and someone not to be trifled with when your invasion went so poorly, and the global response has been so negative as to call in to question the continued...monNom
- existence of your state. Russia appears as a wounded animal right now. Don't expect them to be thinking long-term when there is such short-term peril.monNom
- IE: were it not for nukes and the resolve to employ them, russia might appear as an easy bit of prey for regional conquests.monNom
- @monNom good analysis dudeKrassy
- Fitch on Tuesday downgraded Russia's sovereign rating by six notches further into the junk territory to 'C' from 'B', saying a debt default is imminent