Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Out of context: Reply #4447
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- pr2-12
Lets talk about context.
"30% of hospitalized covid patients will develop serious long-lasting complications."Sounds terrifying, does't it?
(BTW, it's true statement based on a recent study from UK)But we subconsciously don't consider implications of one key words, "hospitalized." If we were to dig deeper, we would experience a profoundly different emotional response.
The study looks at 48,000 hospitalized cases out of 3,000,000 confirmed cases in UK, but some models project that as many as 13mil were infected there. The 48k out of 13 mil makes only .28%. Considering that 30% of that would develop serious consequences, that makes only 0.1 of all cases. (for generic comparison, flu kills that many people).
So yes, "30% of hospitalized covid patients will develop serious long-lasting complications" statement is true but so is "0.1% of covid cases will develop serious long-lasting complications."
Both statements producing a vastly different emotional reaction.- many people that said "it's not that serious" died alone on a hospital bed.
never tempt faith.grafician - How did you manage to read "it's not serious" from what i posted?pr2
- at this moment there are 37k hospitalized cases. That number is updated regularly. The total cumulative hospitalizations is MUCH higher.monospaced
- The cumulative hospitalizations is 350,000. Of the projected 13M cases, the percentage hospitalized is now 2.7%. 1/3 of that is 1.2% with complications or deathmonospaced
- Now, that is using your model with the extreme high of estimated infections. If you use the confirmed 4M, the numbers are way worse.monospaced
- of 3,000,000 confirmed cases, 11.6% have been hospitalized. 3-4% serious complications. MORE than 1% full on dead. Your math is wrong bro.monospaced
- I mean, your gross mishandling of the numbers has your calculations off by almost a full factor of 10.monospaced
- mono, did u bother reading the paper??? It specifies the hospitalization (48k) it uses for purposes of its study.pr2
- yes, and YOU are comparing it to numbers from a different study and a model that predicts a total of 13M infections!monospaced
- mono, 1% of dead if of CONFIRMED cases. If u included TOTAL number f cases based on estimates, it drops to 0.3%.pr2
- IF you're gonna do calculuations, use real numbers, not a subset of cases from a study in August.monospaced
- dude, that paper JUST came out.pr2
- In the UK there have been 90k covid deaths. That is 0.69% of 13M infections and 3% of 3M confirmed.monospaced
- That VERSION was updated today. The study (1st paragraph) says its from August 31 to September 30. Derp.monospaced
- I don't think you read it.monospaced
- wait, what r u arguing? that it take some time to go over data so by definition you can't have a paper based on study that finished yesterday?pr2
- I'm saying that your calculations aren't correct. You're not using the right inputs for your math. It's not complicated.monospaced
- 90k of covid death because of covid or WITH covid, Cause there is a HUGE difference. That's why u might want to read what i posted on previous page.pr2
- There are 90K confirmed covid deaths in the UK. 350K hospitalizations. There are 3.4M confirmed cases. Those are your numbers to do math with.monospaced
- You are assuming the 90K isn't all covid deaths, as reported. Also, your math is wrong AF.monospaced
- mono, if only the scientists listened to you then they wouldn't have to bother writing a 23 numbers-filled paper.pr2
- 23 pagespr2
- Why the FUCK are you using 48K patients to calculate total percentages? That's just the people they discharged that month. :/monospaced
- yo, there are emails of all the people who wrote the paper on the very first page. why don't u email them and ask?pr2
- They didn't do this stupid AF math, did they? They don't divide their cases by 13M, because that would be wrong. As I pointed out.monospaced
- u r not even arguing MY main point. even if we go with YOUR math (350k out of 13 mil cases - 3.4 confirmed), then we are still only at 1% of the cases....pr2
- ...VASTLY different psychological ramification than hearing 30%.pr2
- 3% (not 1%) v 30%pr2
- you guys stop it please! damn! The idea is that we shouldn't downplay this fucking pandemic, so chillgrafician
- so there isn't a scenario were we say after all this "oh, the numbers are actually not that bad, it wasn't that bad" as 2 mil. people already died!grafician
- also we're not done by a mile, as around 40% of ppl in any country don't want to get any vaccine!grafician
- my point is, lets threat this shit seriously but also not overblown it into some indescribable monster.pr2
- @pr2 at best, try to brush up your history and read about all the other pandemics https://www.history.…grafician
- also the numbers speak for themselves and they keep fucking rising A LOT https://www.worldome…grafician
- grafician, come on man, would u ever say say "read up the history of the only thing we talked about the past year" to anyone you had an ounce of respect?pr2
- likewise, noone is denying that the numbers are raising, but what that means for the overall health of the society IS at the core of the debate.pr2
- lol, go get a damn calculator, you're not even doing the math right with your bullshit numbersmonospaced
- 350k of 13M isn't 1%. It's 2.7%. But nobody has confirmed more than 3.5M. You're assuming 13M. And you're just guessing not all 90K reported are truemonospaced
- So it's a fact that 30% of hospitalizations have serious issues. 10% full on die. All you're saying is that if you fudge numbers, it "feels better."monospaced
- If that isn't your emotional reaction, I don't know what is. :)monospaced
- @pr2 exactly knowing how the other large pandemics played out is the best thing to learn from, and yes I respect your opinions 100%grafician
- and yes the numbers can be used to tell a certain "story" but I guess the lessons to be learned are not here yetgrafician
- one lesson I've learned for sure is that our modern societies depend in large part on the dumbest link in the chain and this pandemic is just the start...grafician
- ...to a much large phenomenon: the extinction of the human race; if we barely get over a pandemic like this (this was not ebola!), don't even wanna think...grafician
- ...about fighting in any meaningful way global warming (the great filter - for now)grafician
- if half your population don't even believes in simple basic facts, it's all downhill from here, sorry boysgrafician
- oh yes, the weakest link in the chain here being some village man in China eating pangolins or bats influencing the entire world in the processgrafician
- mono, you are one dim fuck, here is where my 12.4m is coming from:
https://www.edgeheal…pr2 - which confirms numerous papers that reach similar estimates globally (3-6x of the official figures).pr2
- I'm not dim. I'm not even questioning that estimate. I'm simply pointing out that your math is absolute shit, which leads to an absolute shit conclusion.monospaced
- If you are hospitalized because of covid you already have shitty health, call it preconditiondrgs
- many people that said "it's not that serious" died alone on a hospital bed.