Coronavirus
Out of context: Reply #4116
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- drgs1
Norwegian study comparing Norway vs Sweden
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/…
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/…Tl;dr: Old people die at a constant rate, but external events like heatwaves and influenzas or lack of thereof may speed up or delay their death. 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 had mild influenza seasons and lower than usual mortality in Sweden, so you have a surplus of old people who "outstayed their welcome", so when the Corona hits you have excess mortality.
Possibly."Our study shows that although Covid-19 associated mortality rate was almost 15-fold higher in Sweden than in Norway during the epidemic, all-cause mortality was not higher in Sweden compared with three of the four preceding years. An increase in all-cause mortality was only observed in comparison to the immediately preceding period (2018/19), because mortality was lower than in the previous years. The excess mortality was confined to individuals older than 70 years. In contrast, mortality rates were lower than expected for all ages in Norway and individuals younger than 70 years in Sweden.
At the beginning of the Covid-19 epidemic, extensive social measures were introduced in Norway in the form of restrictions and prohibitions to limit the spread of Covid-19 (13–19), while the public health authorities in Sweden chose a much less intrusive strategy (20–25). The Swedish strategy against Covid-19 has therefore received intense international attention and criticism (9), notably because reported mortality rates in Sweden have been higher than in comparable countries such as Norway. In Sweden, however, mortality was lower than expected in the months preceding the epidemic. This finding may suggest mortality displacement.
Mortality displacement (37) entails temporarily increased mortality (called excess mortality) in a population as a result of external events, such as heat waves (38), or epidemics like influenza (39) or Covid-19. The observed temporary excess mortality likely arises because people in vulnerable groups die weeks or months earlier than they would otherwise, due to the timing and severity of the unusual external event. The excess mortality is therefore preceded or followed by periods of lower than expected mortality. The period preceding the excess mortality in Sweden during the Covid-19 epidemic, characterised by lower mortality than usual, might be due, at least partly, to a mild influenza season during the winter of 2019-20 (40). Further, after the Covid-19 epidemic, we might see a decline in morbidity and mortality below normal levels in Sweden, as the oldest and frailest have already died."
- i think excess mortality will be down everywhere this year, YLL (years of life lost) could be way down on previous years. i know locally any deathkingsteven
- in care homes has covid on the certificate if there are any respiratory symptoms, folks with COPD with multiple negative swabs -numbers are massively inflated.kingsteven
- We should have reduced mortality 2-3 years ahead for suredrgs