2020 Election Predictions
Out of context: Reply #221
- Started
- Last post
- 376 Responses
- nb1
FULL report:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/…TL;DR here:
PA:
Even a favorable Supreme Court ruling would do little for Mr. Trump. Fewer than 30,000 ballots have been added to the state’s tally since election night. It’s possible that some of these ballots wouldn’t be subject to legal challenge, and might have been received on Election Day, either in the mail or in the drop boxes, and just weren’t processed until later. Even if all 30,000 were invalidated, Mr. Biden’s advantage would withstand those losses.
At this point, the only serious question is whether the networks will make a projection in Pennsylvania with Mr. Biden holding a nominal edge, or whether they’ll wait for him to build a more significant lead. Sometimes, they wait for a candidate to build a lead outside of the range of a recount — 0.5 of a point in Pennsylvania — before making a projection. There was a similar situation in Michigan on Wednesday, as Mr. Biden took a lead that was sure to grow, but the networks didn’t call the state until Mr. Biden led by a full point. He now leads there by around three points.
AZ:
The bottom line: Arizona may continue to tighten, and there’s no basis to call the state at this time. But Mr. Trump is not on track to overtake Mr. Biden. He’ll need to do better than what he has done so far.
Mr. Biden will be president-elect if he’s declared the projected winner in both Arizona and Nevada.
GA:
All together, Mr. Biden has a very slim but nonetheless clear edge in the state. There’s just not much vote left, and on balance what’s out would tend to pad his lead. Still, don’t expect a call soon. It’s within the margin of a recount. This one might not be called until the results are certified.
NV:
So far, no one has projected the state for Mr. Biden, but virtually all of the remaining vote is from this heavily Democratic county.
- Looks like Biden has it won, it's just not official.nb
- I like how the NYT is waiting for "the networks" to make a projection. Pretty interesting.nb
- at this point, we're holding a pair of Aces and the flop came AAK. Trump meanwhile just went all in with 2&6 unsuited lol._niko
- ^ Was that poker language?CyBrainX
- Georgia is planning a recount but will they go ahead with it if all the others are beyond 1% leads for Biden giving him more than 270 electoral points?CyBrainX
- Yes, most likely. It is still important to record things accurately.nb