Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #2522

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  • kingsteven0

    Ludicrously unpopular opinion of the day:

    Does anyone else think we should be more openly talking about the fact that healthcare workers are spreading the disease to the most venerable people? It's been on my mind for weeks /definitely the big taboo of the pandemic and I think the public's unwillingness to discuss (or even think about it) may have been exploited by the UK government - not only to to defer criticism for inadequate PPE and testing (through martyrdom of NHS workers) but to actually facilitate the spread in order to manufacture a steep drop off in hospital deaths that can be used to gain public support for easing lockdown. Bear with me...

    This is based on a few assumptions about the UK gov't:
    - They never stopped pursuing herd immunity.
    - They don't want to prevent deaths, they want to control them to create stability for the markets.
    - They controlled case numbers (kept below a 22% increase) by limiting the roll out of testing through Public Health England.
    - They equate stability of a declining death toll to economic market stability.
    - They don't give a shit about frontline staff.
    - They are a despicable bunch of cunts that are really successful at manipulating public opinion.

    So, you want to steady the markets but you don't know the R0 and IFR parameters of the pandemic and you believe that the country can reach herd immunity before vaccine availability?

    Worst case scenario: Multiple peaks
    This is akin to the original ICL prediction... The virus has spread to < 5% of the population and has a high fatality ratio, antibodies only last for a few months / possibility of reinfection.
    RESPONSE: release and tighten lockdown restrictions to maintain as much economic activity as possible to maintain a steady decline in deaths until vaccine availability.

    Best case scenario: Magical disappearing flu
    The fatality rate sits between 0.1 and 0.3% and the UK (with suspected/ care home/ home deaths included @ 41,000 deaths) may have reached its peak cases several weeks ago (we were none the wiser because UK testing capacity is so low). If those numbers are correct we are already 20% - 50% immune.
    RESPONSE: manufacture a 'buffer' - an initial quick drop-off in daily deaths will be used to gain public support for easing lockdown and then facilitate a smooth fall in deaths as they begin to let the virus spread through less venerable parts of society.

    HYPOTHETICAL GOVERNMENT PLAN TO ALLOW FOR ALL EVENTUALITIES
    - Stability of death count == market stability.
    - Achieving herd immunity quickest way of restoring normallity.
    - Insist on using PHE tests/ control roll out.
    - Don't prevent deaths, control them.
    - Smooth curve of death count by only officially counting deaths of diagnosed cases IN hospitals.
    - Facilitate a smooth fall in deaths as lockdown is eased for less venerable parts of society.

    HOW TO CONTROL DEATHS:
    - Everyone who's going to die, we want them to die ASAP.
    - Let healthcare workers spread the virus.
    - Achieve 100% immunity in healthcare workers through inadequate PPE.
    - Limit testing to NHS workers then send 20% back to work infected (through dodgy PHE testing).
    - Implement a brutal hospital triage system to ensure venerable patients die elsewhere.
    - Fewer and fewer venerable choosing to attend hospital.

    HOW TO GET AWAY WITH IT AND GET EVERYTHING WE WANT
    - Feign incompetence because at the end of the day you're libertarians and can sacrifice your political career for a cushy job.
    - Put a big NHS logo on the triage recommendations and leak it to the press.
    - Only refer to the NHS as individual workers, blame PPE and Testing gaffs on the public structures of the NHS (like centralised ordering/ stock management) even though that was deliberately fudged by the gov't.
    - Heroise NHS staff to make them martyrs when they die.
    - Heroise NHS staff to reenforce the taboo of healthcare workers spreading the disease (past uncomfortable, to UNTHINKABLE!)

    I mean, I'm verging on conspiracy theory here but I can back up a lot of these claims with claims from mainstream press - milking an existing taboo isn't a big jump considering (I think folks not familiar with UK politics would be shocked at the shit that goes on - its exactly the sort of social engineering the Tories love).

    Personal prediction: we're closer to the 'magical disappearing flu' scenario than we think - the government will get away with all their bullshit, distrust will create pushback on lifting lockdown will be spun in to 'recovery made worse by extending lockdown' and used against the left.

    kingsteven 0Permalink
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    • in most places access to healthcare system is restricted to people likely to be or actually infected. I'd image spread out from healthcare workers is minimal?lowimpakt
    • I could be and am usually wronglowimpakt
    • I think you're attributing far more competence here than I'd expect from our ex-Journo in chief and chums. Unless you're invoking hidden structuresNairn
    • like MI5 or whatever other unelected special/general interest groupings exist, evidence of which is bubbling up a bit these daysNairn
    • I personally think the economic lid will be lifted before the government is currently implying, even if it is staged. 'cos you're right - £ trumps all.Nairn
    • Your tin foil hat is missing...necromation
    • @lowimpact this would refer to the early cases that were admitted to ICU before triage and a 'bank' of seriously ill people that require constant hospital carekingsteven
    • while that idea sounds like borderline eugenics it does seem to be at least statistically relevant in pandemic outbreaks...kingsteven
    • this is just the warm up act before christmas and a fucking no deal brexit ... flattening the curve and then the economyBluejam
    • @Nairn, I think these ideas may come easier to libertarians that see the loss of life as a war effort to save the economy than the rest of us.kingsteven
    • I don't think they have a plan, you can see they are folding internally inside their own heads every time they talk.PhanLo
    • probably the thickest and most self serving government ever to grace this tiny islandBluejam
    • @necromation I don't need one as I always wear my anglo-saxon full face suton hoo helmetkingsteven
    • @PhanLo, or trying to recall the party line. Some of this is a happy accident but i'm sure Cummings has something like this mapped out as a masterplan.kingsteven
    • Sometimes the worst place to go you're sick is a hospital. Petri dishes.monoboy
    • ^ I hear you man, it seems the party is split with some people wanting the Megadeth. Bojo was going along with it til he got cabbaged.PhanLo
    • Having watched both my parents die from cancer, I learnt a few things about healthcare.monoboy
    • Palliative care teams play symptom whackamole with all kinds of very expensive drugs and treatments.monoboy
    • The money, expertise and facilities involved is huge.monoboy
    • Government's only looks at balance sheets and targets. This one looks at the NHS and thinks 'fuck me' how much! We could make a killing. It's the golden goose.monoboy
    • It's also the pinnacle achievement of socialist liberal thinking. They desperately want it to fail.monoboy
    • The current government is just a collection of marketing spivs working on behalf of corporate interests. And they're very good at it.monoboy
    • The NHS will be sold-off as part of the Brexit deal and it'll be blamed on COVID-19.monoboy
    • Not sure you've noticed, but there's a little more love for the NHS in the air of late in the UK population. No chance of a sell-off for years to come now.Nairn
    • ^ I really hope not Monoboy. Not sure it would be wise for them to do that.PhanLo
    • They may be libertarians and free-marketeers but even if they're as ruthless as that, it makes no sense to destroy the health service out of ideological spiteFax_Benson
    • Nairn I think the difference between the NHS as 'Doctors and Nurses' or a full 'Healthcare system' is lost on most. I've seen a few articles this week pinningkingsteven
    • the failures acquiring PPE, Ventilators, Testing on the centralised system. They are lining up the failings of the government as failures of the system.kingsteven
    • Even as the private company that runs the warehousing for PPE has been sold twice this year (once last week)! Its astonishing.kingsteven
    • Fax the privatisation of the NHS has always been a huge motivating factor in Brexit (it's just facilitated by racism)kingsteven
    • I think you're thinkinng about it too much - sure, the Private Procuring Co. that fucked the PPE orders isn't the NHS and we know that - but most people willNairn
    • ...blame procurement issues directly on the gov't, and hail all the Good Deeds on the NHS itself. People's over-simplification works in its favour here.Nairn
    • Pretty sure the policy was let it fail, explain that it's not sustainable and introduce a US style two tier insurance based system.monoboy
    • I was bemused to hear some Army dolt criticize the NHS for its apparent inability to ration PPEs - I mean, the Army, ffs. Pot, meet darkest of blacks kettle...Nairn
    • Having grown up around the military, the thought any of those useless middle management fuckwits could do a better job isn't even laughable.Nairn
    • Aaron Banks sells insurance. Vote Leave is run by hedge fund capitalists. The tax payers alliance are a UK mouthpiece for the US far-right.monoboy
    • Brexit is a colossal stitch up to sell off the NHS. Always was. Back down now and they'll crucify Boris.monoboy
    • Daniel Hannan was filmed giving the game away. As was Farrage.monoboy
    • Cummings hates that crew. Johnson used Farage and dumped him. They're history now.Fax_Benson
    • I think Boris will get replaced before the end of the year. He was always a Europhile and just wanted the limelight. https://www.youtube.…monoboy
    • Sorry, no0 - Brexit was not a strategem to sell off the NHS, selling off of the NHS was just a neat possibiilty it opened up. And Boris will be PM next year.Nairn
    • the Johnson / Cummings brexit is / was totally different to the Banks etc version. Agree with nairn it was never about the nhs for them.Fax_Benson
    • I agree Brexit itself is the ideology now. Back when we had a functioning government the EHCR blocking privatisation brought Brexit back to the table...kingsteven
    • Anyway, i didn't mean to suggest this would be a masterplan to sell off the NHS, more a convenient scapegoat.kingsteven
    • Read so many articles about the UK response this week that have lead me to believe the 'dark arts' are at play. They're up to something.kingsteven
    • Hah, so Dominic Cummings and Ben Warner are both on SAGE? FFS http://archive.is/rK…kingsteven
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