Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #2110

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  • kingsteven2

    Researchers in Germany used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study to test the quality of records. Their results show on average only 6% of actual SARS-CoV-2 infections detected worldwide: Germany has detected an estimated 15.6% of infections compared to only 3.5% in Italy or 1.7% in Spain. Detection rates are even lower in the United States (1.6%) and the United Kingdom (1.2%)

    https://www.sciencedaily.com/rel…

    First results from a large scale randomised serological test (lab antibody testing) in Germany should be released today:

    https://www.facebook.com/hbergpr…

    Will me interesting to find out how the serological test results compare to the first paper's numbers...

    kingsteven 2Permalink
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    • https://edition.cnn.…
      Half of corona carriers do not know it and dont bother to test      drgs
    • ^ other studies i've seen say 4 in 5 untested the first study i posted demonstrates it could be as high as 3 in 250 (in the UK) the serology tests in germanykingsteven
    • (best testing in europe) are expected to be at least 1 in 3kingsteven
    • another study in italy exclusively of 60 healthcare workers that didn't believe they had covid-19 showed that 40 of them actually did (the active virus)kingsteven
    • the first study is speculative but as its working with deaths/ not cases the numbers should remain relative between countries (even if they're proved to be off)kingsteven
    • Good for Germany, they must be the first to actually do the serological testing?yuekit
    • so these numbers point to an overall mortality rate of less that .5% no?_niko
    • around .3% ... given that the worst report from Italy was 1.8% CFR of a town with confirmed 70% infection it seems unlikely to be that low but then again thekingsteven
    • demographics may not have been in their favour.kingsteven
    • there's a few places doing it atm yuekit, but the german study is the biggest so far and i think its lab testing, not the pin-prick antibody test kits.kingsteven
    • Germany are being advised by one of the best virology experts in the world (who discovered SARS) ...Krassy
    • ... and his input has really helped combat the pandemic and has helped shape a proactive sensible approachKrassy
    • ...Christian Drosten:

      https://www.ndr.de/n…      Krassy
    • If they are right about this, I guess it would put the number of infected somewhere between the Imperial and Oxford studies?yuekit
    • But if they are right, what would the implication be? It would mean several million infected in the U.K. and tens of millions in the U.S.yuekit
    • How could you ever hope to control/contain something that has spread that widely? It makes the current measures seem somewhat futile.yuekit
    • i get the feeling this german study, like the oxford is about introducing theoretically valid high counts to emphasise the importance of mass antibody testing.kingsteven
    • it has good implications in a lower CFR but bad in that it could be used to validate lifting of distancing measures to facilitate herd immunity...kingsteven
    • ie. validate the idea that even the current death count is based on a 'bank' of high-risk individuals. or the idea of a 'reasonable' death ratekingsteven
    • I have a friend in New York who has tried to get tested 3 times. His fever is not high enough. Lots of people turned away.BH26
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