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DISCLAIMER I am totally down for locking myself up in the house if it saves just one old person, i'll stay here for a few months if i need to in the hope we come up with a better treatment and think it may even be a bonus if we all get time to evaluate what actually matters to us as a society and willingly shart the economy from our collective imagination.
Professor Neil Ferguson created the mathematical model on which the UK and US (to a lesser degree) has determined the response to COVID-19 for the Imperial College, he's currently recovering from COVID-19 and you may have seen articles in the UK press "Coronavirus expert who is working on despite symptoms". Anyway, he's Head of Dept. at Imperial College London's department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and seems like a nice well meaning chap - he's once, twice, three times a doctor and i'm willing to side with his recommendations. When he gets better he's promised to share the Source Code on which he's modelled the outbreak which he has described as "Thousands of lines of undocumented C" which he wrote 13+ years ago.
HEE'S A WAHHT NOW?
Yes, it seems he wrote his model 13 years ago during a fever dream and now has very little understanding of how it works... He's used his model to make some predictions for the UK govt. before... For swine flu: "spreading fast enough to justify the preparations for a pandemic." recommendations: "treating isolated cases with antivirals, public health measures such as school closures, travel restrictions around the region, mass use of antiviral prophylaxis in the population and possible use of vaccines" long story short: it didn't kill that many people [insert telling graph].
Lets assume they ended testing because everybody died. No, obviously swine flu and Covid-19 are vastly different, with the former being particularly nasty for kids. NOT COOL SWINE FLU!
Actually no shit, there's a fair amount of criticism about the severity of ICL's graphs floating about for Covid-19 and in most cases I've sided with the ICL view over other mathematical models as they seem to allow for more 'human' factors in the spread of the virus and ICL have helped shaped the UK governments response to BSE, vCDG, foot and mouth, SARS quite successfully...
Here's a post I made a few days ago getting my head around the scary numbers of projected deaths in the US, doing some very basic math to apply some grim estimates on the most susceptible demographics I could get data on (the 85+ crew) in which i aimed to demonstrate for means of my own sanity that it is very unlikely that lockdown can continue for more than a couple of months anyway (which a although unfortunate is probably a more realistic view of how things will go down than the suggested ICL plan)
So, lets go wackjob, theoretical wackjob. Lets say someone else had a model that also matched the death rate in china and italy, but did so with "the intention of exploring the sensitivity of the system to the actual fraction of the population vulnerable to severe disease and death" but unlike the Imperial College model - it shows that the pandemic will actually only last 2-3 months. This model may also be able to explain the drop in new cases in China and perhaps even a few other anomalies (what was that cough i had over christmas?, did covid-19 even originate in Wuhan?) and lets say it's from the Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease Oxford University
This is the same paper that Yuekit posted about earlier... the headline on the FT read: "Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population" honestly fuck the Financial Times for choosing that as the headline, Daily Mail have run with something like that too they're trying to move public opinion towards letting the old and at risk die to help the economy when actually this study is very much in support of the current measures to stop the spread.
Anyway, I've been back and forth trying to make some sense of it because I am not a fucking rocket surgeon and it just seems so unlikely a proposition that covid-19 has been around for months and been missed. How the hell could a new virus go undetected for so long? And if so, how all of a sudden does it start killing people exponentially all of a sudden if it's been about for months?
Here's the start of the abstract:
"The spread of a novel pathogenic infectious agent eliciting protective immunity is typically characterised by three distinct phases: (I) an initial phase of slow accumulation of new infections (often undetectable), (II) a second phase of rapid growth in cases of infection, disease and death, and (Ill) an eventual slow down of transmission due to the depletion of susceptible individuals, typically leading to the termination of the (first) epidemic wave."
The idea is that Covid-19 could have been around for quite a while before it was detected, a pile of us may have already had it, and we're already so over it we've already developed immunity and now test negative for the virus. Unlike the way it's being reported in the press, the reason they released the paper through twitter and not through official channels is that they're suggesting that we need to develop antibody testing alongside virus testing if we're to actually understand the spread and contain the virus.
New study from Oxford says covid-19 has been around for ages and there wont be multiple spikes and if we lockdown for 2 more months it'll just go away.
- Jaysus christ, how do you like that for a post!kingsteven
- I personally enjoy reading your posts :)sted
- yes. good post.maquito
- A lockdown for 2 months, however, would totally derange world's economy and therefore would create chaos. Just sayin.maquito
- Is the world ready to face a shock like this? Forget about great and/or meager economies. We are likely to face a global economic crisis.maquito
- that's not really how the economy works. its a bit like santa... you can be naughty right up till christmas and then give your sister a hug and boom ACTION MANkingsteven
- I, as a third world citizen, fear for the future of my parents, of my son, and my own. Dunno what would happen if they sent me to unemployment insurance.maquito
- seriously, can we stop pretending the economy is a real thing? we will all have our action man, and eat it.kingsteven
- this isn't the 1930s most of what we consider the economy is service sector, including industry - all jobs essential to society continue through lock downkingsteven
- the rest just exist to guarantee consistent economic growth under the capitalist system. and there's going to be a bigger demand for STUFF than ever before whenkingsteven
- Yeah, but it's not the same to earn a 40% of what you would earn normally. What would you do if your wallet could not cover the basic expenses of your home?maquito
- (in Uruguay, unemployment insurance covers UP TO 40% or your monthly income). 50.000 workers sent to UI so far.maquito
- I totally understand your point, but there's thousands of desperate people dude, just here in my country.maquito
- this is over.kingsteven
- Whole comment section should belong to Conspiracy of the day thread. j/k, i share many thoughts, king.maquito
- hah, soz... was gonna write more but ran out of action man analogies. :Dkingsteven
- i'm going to read about Uruguay man, I know very little about the current situation my sister was there recently. she just made it back before this all started!kingsteven
- It’s not so bad, still. There’s a phenomenal communitarian reaction going on, positive bout staying inside, and there’s only around 200 infected peoplemaquito
- There was a recent change of govnmt. 20 days ago. First right wing since the last 15 years, and decisions have not been quite the way they should’vemaquito
- Ie: no general quarantine. Imagine: a small country with only 200 infected. Why the hell wouldn’t you call a general quarantine??maquito
- Because $. This would’ve been ssso different with Mujica.maquito
- That's disappointing, from what I know it's pretty progressive. we will see, in the UK the new laws passed for corona virus are a nightmare as they prohibitkingsteven
- public gathering, so if this is going to be turned against us as austerity measures the police will have additional powers to break up demonstrations etc.kingsteven
- im very concerned about the aftermath, but enjoying seeing folks come to realisations about the world, the economy, what matters in their life.kingsteven
- we were very similar here 2 weeks ago (Northern Ireland), still only 4 dead but could have been handled better. we will see.kingsteven
- +1 king. I really appreciate this exchanges... this ls the whole point of QBN. Cheers for that. Stay safe, keep posting!maquito
- Here's something that may support the theory...UK family had virus back in January
- I like to say I already had it. Same with most people in my gals office. But you don't buy it really.deathboy
- interesting yuekit, i guess we will know at some point. just gotta hang in there... @db we're being extra precautious atm as my g/f is still coughing since Jankingsteven
- when we both had something nasty... she was talking about going to the doctor to get it checked out last month but no chance now.kingsteven