Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #1339

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  • kingsteven6

    3 million people die in the US every year. of those 1.4 million will be 85+

    there are currently 6.5 million 85+ in the US
    the gov't expects 80% all americans infected
    that's 5.2m americans aged 85+ infected.

    I could go further in to the documentation on pre-existing conditions like how the majority of >85 y/o have diagnosed heart disease, multiple conditions and how those influence the death rate. But to keep it simple:

    worst death rate for >80 y/o is 20% (Italy).

    20% of the 5.2m americans aged 85+ infected accounts for 1.04 million deaths to coronavirus.

    I've seen predictions that project the US death toll at 1.1 million, 1.7 million and 2.2 million. While it would be impossible to know how many of these deaths would have happened anyway in the next year - there's certainly an overlap.

    The tragedy is that if the death rate for 85+ is as high as 20% many folks will have died unnecessarily as respirators will have been allocated to younger patients, how many of those younger patients will go on to have serious respiratory issues? and if the hospitals are that overwhelmed how many of the 6 million cured cancers in the US every year (and other treatable conditions) will be missed or lead to otherwise preventable deaths...

    I'm writing all this because I see so many folks freaking out about numbers (particularly NBQ00) and can only see a vaccine in 18 months as the end point (bennn). The reason we need to isolate is to slow down the spread... What will hopefully happen is that we'll see treatments for coronavirus improve to a point where the deaths and related conditions reach an 'acceptable level' (i'm sure someone knows what that is... why is are seasonal flu deaths judged by society as acceptable?) and once we've got our health care systems below capacity (and hopefully not because of economic pressure), we will never reach those higher death estimates, governments will loosen distancing measures and W.H.O will recommend herd immunity. If this doesn't happen within 6 months i'd be surprised as we could see the deaths from treatable conditions and conditions relating to isolation (loneliness, poverty) overtake coronavirus - and if that's the case there's really only one solution:

    CAROUSEL, CAROUSEL, CAROUSEL

    kingsteven 6Permalink
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    • superb postfadein11
    • Again - was thinking, if everybody and I mean everybody just stays 1 month in house, the virus will actually die ffsake if is not spreading anymore!grafician
    • Then just go in and test everybody to see if there are remains...grafician
    • and ofc, just pay everybody for 1-2 months directly - no fucking bailouts! that's itgrafician
    • even the most incompetent presidents can implement this strategy, is not that hard commongrafician
    • grafician total isolation is impossible and we're not guaranteed to develop immunity, agree with you on the rest though :)kingsteven
    • Eventually in the dystopian future if your old, they'll just send a van round and you'll get in and get recycled Logan's Run style.PhanLo
    • Exactly kingsteven, iam all aware of flattening the curb, i totally agree and I've mention it multiple timeBennn
    • grafician, its just impossible... you'll also need to close the USA to the rest of World for a very long time. Its impossible.Bennn
    • i know ben :) i was just using those numbers to show how isolation is only viable to improve treatment, not to wait for a cure.kingsteven
    • *thumb up*Bennn
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