Bitcoin
Out of context: Reply #1583
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- drgs0
So, we had a small bounce to 7300, I was expecting more, but whatever.
For those who haven't seen it, looking at the full price history of Bitcoin, there is some sort of bedrock support which the corn has enjoyed over the years.
No one knows how it manifests itself, could be either intentional or as a side effect of the programming (how the halvenings/hash/difficulty adjusts itself), or maybe even that the price is controlled, but the support line has held for 10 years.
On a log chart with quadratic time (starting point 25.09.2010 = 0) it looks like a perfectly linear trend:
Trend line:
https://bit.ly/33aJdyUTranslating back to log chart with normal time:
https://bit.ly/2OGaSCHLinear chart zoomed in:
https://bit.ly/2QN4ThWUnfolded log chart (subtracted support) with quadratic time:
https://bit.ly/2rorsyGIf we continue in a straight line down, for me to be convinced that the bottom is in we should touch at least 6250 or below.
I'm not surprised by the drop, but I have to say how soon it happened. I was really expecting us to chop sideways until early 2020. By that time the support will grow to approx where we are now 6500-6600. So, if we bounce from here, chop for a while and revisit the same prices in jan-feb 2020, there is a chance that the bottom is already in, or at least there will be another chance to buy at similar prices.
Either way if you are looking for a long term investment, this could be the time to buy. Ethereum could be an even better option -- it is mostly pegged to the corn price, but they have a big Casper upgrade coming in early 2020.
- too much hope in your post, not enough rekt.inteliboy
- omg, it's amazing and hilarious how much work goes into making a graph appear to be positivemonospaced
- "a log[arithmic] chart with quadratic time" ... that's funnymonospaced
- a log-log chart is close, but not a 100% match. log-quadratic was better. Basically this means you compress the time the further you move from origodrgs
- 1 month in 2012 corresponds to 2.5 months in 2019. Time is slowing down in the Bitcoin universedrgs
- Rallies become slower and hairier, harder to read. With time normalization it looks like the chart to the left, in reality its https://i.imgur.com/…drgs
- If the trend holds I expect the next cycle to climax in late 2023. It will have 4-5 rallies/dips which ladder up to the top, and they each will last 6-9 monthsdrgs
- The growing problem is increase in derivatives and gamefication of Bitcoin. Its literally starting to look more and more like an illiquid shitcoindrgs
- Every time we have some growth, everyone opens a leveraged long, and the pile breaks down. When price is slipping, everyone opens a short, followed by a squeezedrgs
- We are trapped in bearish buying and bullish selling in this longest running ponzi scheme, but I give it a few more yearsdrgs
- don't bother. mono just chimes in here with his clever quips, than gets annoyed at robo for doing the exact same thing in the politics thread.inteliboy
- excuse me?monospaced
- Your first comment was nothing more than a clever quip. Your second was to talk shit to me. The nerve you have.monospaced
- My comment was pointing out the clear undeniable fact that hilarious amounts of work goes into taking a shit chart and make it look good. Care to comment?monospaced
- At least he explained. All you’re doing is being a dick.monospaced
- mate all you do in this thread is shit on btc. we get it.inteliboy
- not really, I just think it's funny when people try to predict it, because it's not really predictablemonospaced