Bitcoin
Out of context: Reply #1304
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- sarahfailin-2
So here is why I think BTC is in trouble, maybe totally fucked.
This is the Daily chart. Each candlestick represents the prices BTC sold at during a 24-hour period. As we can see, the price has been moving within a wedge-- lower highs in each wave, higher lows as well, restricting price movement to a smaller and smaller area. This will have to change by the time we reach where the two cyan lines intersect, and it will either go UP or it will go DOWN. Since this wedge shape is a longer-term trend, we can expect a significant market movement when the wedge is broken
So which way will it go? On May 29 we touched the bottom of the wedge and we jumped up, starting a little bull run (bright green lines) upwards that seemed promising! It seemed like the bars would head towards the top of the wedge and shoot upwards from there.
But that shit is losing steam, and that is a bad sign. We have failed to accomplish a higher-high daily price, and we're about to probably see a lower-low today; this indicates a turnaround in momentum. Volume has also been very low- meaning not many people are jumping on right now, perhaps for a lack of faith that it will go up from here.
Let's look at a shorter time period.
This is the hourly chart of BTC -- each candle represents the price within an hour. You can see us testing the bottom side of those same upwards-slanted, green lines.
Everything was looking good until the "ruh roh" moment on June 4th, when a healthy retracement downward failed to find a higher point to bounce and broke the trend of having higher lows. It shot downward to hit the green line, where it found support. Since then, we have failed to accomplish a higher high than before the 4th.
We can see that momentum was the highest before the 4th, and it's been waning ever since. Despite us having lower prices and having shown recent upwards movement, people are not convinced they should buy right now.
Presently, you can see we are testing the green line again. We may bounce up from it once more, but a lot of these decreasing signs show that eventually we will fall out of the uptrend and head back towards the cyan lines of the big wedge. Time is ticking on our remaining time within the wedge, and this lackluster showing seems to show that when we break out of the wedge, it will be through the BOTTOM, and not the top.
The bottom line is that BTC will go LOWER than it went before the bull run it started on May 29th, maybe much lower.
I'm new to this, but I've been learning about charting. Thanks for listening ;)
- "The fate of the coins hangs in the balance. what BTC does in the next days/weeks will determine whether we're going up or down for the middle term"monospaced
- you realize you're talking about a grand total of only the last 9 days, right?monospaced
- wedge goes back to february, actually.sarahfailin
- the image you meant to post and the one you're discussing in those several paragraphs ... May 9 - June 8monospaced
- May 29monospaced
- I think we will go above 8k this monthdrgs
- ^if we don't break the cyan line, i think so too. I think short term we will definitely break the green uptrend linesarahfailin