Politics
Out of context: Reply #3937
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- hallelujah0
In a general sense, the candidate preferences of the broad group of all registered voters have been remarkably steady for over two weeks now, showing little fluctuation despite both candidates' intense campaigning, the huge amount of news coverage of the election, and high levels of voter attention to the election. Obama's percent of the vote among registered voters has varied only between 50 -52% for the last 16 days, and McCain's has varied only between 41-43%.
Gallup's estimates of likely voters show more variation; these calculations take into account not only candidate preferences, but also the individual respondent's interest in the election, self-reports of intention to vote, and for the traditional model, reports of past voting history and knowledge of voting procedures. The average Obama lead over McCain among traditional likely voters since Oct. 6 has been five points, but that lead has expanded over the last several day's reports, and Obama's current 52-42% lead among this group is the largest to date.