The "R" word?

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  • trooperbill0

  • SkyPoo0

    Blueberry hats

    LOL

    Ah who knows Khuzz. All I know is, I feel a spring in my step.

  • 23kon0

    I'm with Spooky.

    Companies are going to tighten their purse strings in the sense that they'll watch what they are spending their money on.
    They will want to be making sure they get the best services for the money that they are spending.

    This means that they'll be less likely to go to larger design houses who decorate everything with bullshit, overcharge and give a substandard service and more likely to look for companies who actually deliver what they promise and more importantly, can demonstrate the impact that this work will (and does) have on helping the company kick ass against their competitors.
    In the world of these businesses it will become dog eat dog.

    As a company, we've never been busier and we've also had to take on extra hands to cope with the load.

  • chossy0

    I am pretty sure I will be let go in a couple of months or maybe February, so I have taken out an income protection policy :D that way I have a year to get my shit together.
    I have been through this before and it was directly after 9/11 the advertisers almost immediatly shut up shop in Scotland, and I did nothign for about three months then the company had to close, at the moment I am doing very little at work and so is my co-editor while one of us is working the other is archiving, this is fine as we need to take the time to archive stuff but our bosses don't see it that way and if we are both not editing at the same time then they think we are not worth the money.

  • TheBlueOne0

    Shit. Dow dropped 161 points on open to be below 9,000. This is nuts.

  • TheBlueOne0

    I feel unless there is some kind of massive turn around (which I doubt) my main job will be in jeopardy come march '09. We have a two big contracts that pay us until then, but nothing new has come down the pike...and the architecture/build industry is frozen now. Our subcontractors are crying. Kinda started to get a wee bit scared. Will have to focus on scaring up some more freelance work. More worried about losing my medical benefits...

  • Khurram0

    yeah, 09 will be the crunch time.

    Most of the work, esp advertising, marketing, brand-work etc... Is money that was already earmarked in the fiscal year April 08.

    You wont truly feel this until the next fiscal year.

    Also, re: general work for designers - Internet advertising will show more resilience than any other, because it's cheap and easy to disseminate. Someone like in more traditional work, i.e chossy, scary picture, 4.6% decline this year.

    Even in terms of online ads, the only "buoyant" sectors are cheap shit like google ad words and classified...

    To put the fear of god into you lot:

    "'Horror show' year ahead for media firms"
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/…

  • Khurram0
  • Khurram0

    mmmmm, i dont know where you guys confidence comes from...

    ITV battles advertising downturn
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/busin…

    Advertising downturn cuts 33% off SMG profits
    http://www.independent.co.uk/new…

    Channel 4 faces budget cut after advertising downturn
    http://business.timesonline.co.u…

    you're all fucked!! :D

  • Khurram0

    ha, just hope this downturn hits "traditional" media, and the internet bucks the trend...

    • What am i saying??? *I* work in traditional media! :-/Khurram
  • dbloc0

  • 23kon0

    "Mmmmm, i dont know where you guys confidence comes from"

    Aye the start of 2009 when it comes to trying to get in new work will be a challenge but im confident that there will be clients out there looking for high quality design / seo / web work. design firms will have to prove their worth to win the jobs.

    Clients will hopefully realise that going for a company that is "cheaper" is a BAD move (like they all do eventually anyway lol) and that they would be better making an investment in GOOD work.

    Clients will also be looking for the most economic way to reach their audiences too, so Kharram, yeah definitely reckon it will be the interweb that everyone will be shooting for rather than spending money on getting lovely expensive brochures printed out or expensively designed annual reports.

    Folk are doing that already though. The British HEart Foundation with their lovely annual report site online. When was the last time you were given a healthy budget to do a 'Print' annual report. I bet it was 3+ years ago! Folk are opting for the interweb now.

    Those links you gave are for advertising budgets - thats completely different from websites and annual reports etc.
    A lot of advertising is just an excuse to spend a shitload of money on something that probably wont ever yield the same return.

  • Khurram0

    "Those links you gave are for advertising budgets - that's completely different from websites and annual reports etc.
    A lot of advertising is just an excuse to spend a shitload of money on something that probably wont ever yield the same return. "

    haha... it's all part of the same thing dude. "All advertising is in the shit, except my particular niche advertising which is exempt because of x, y, z"

    Oh well, at this stage i guess this is pure speculation. Though i don't see why companies who are considering MASSIVE job cuts are gonna lavish their money on fucking annual reports? Charities who will see a shrinkage in donations are gonna put all their efforts into "beautifully" designed websites... I don't see the logic.

    Until we see some actual facts and figures, i guess it all is pure speculation. Tho, again, those links, they refer to BIG media companies, trickle down to subsidaries and production houses all down the chain, groups have hands in many pies - not just television. Media across the board.

    I just think some of you are naive to the implications of a recession - i.e. a shrinking economy for EVERYBODY.

    • NO i have nothing against paying taxes but i have a HUBE beef with the way those taxes are calculated.killthefish
  • kelpie0

    I think there's a valid point here though, it would be the way to try to fend off the badness; digital is cheap and quick and potentially can reach a lot more people so I'd expect it to be where whatever's left is going to go in the next year - it would be the way to pitch yourself in any attempt to get new work anyhow. One of our bigger clients already had to cut its cross agency marketing budget even last year and it was all cut from above the line, so I can conceivably see this being how it goes.

    It won't be a desire for high quality from companies that saves anyone though, it'll be a willingness to get stuck in for less cash on agencies part, to be frank. And being clever and resilient, that'll help.

  • kelpie0

    also I'd imagine it'll be better for smart freelancers when it comes to any of the smaller jobs that tick an agency over outside the big contracts as they can undercut more easily. Spooky may be bullishly looking forward to a lot more book cover commissions too as people decide to spend £7.99 on a good book and stay in rather than going out to gigs/cinema/etc etc ;)

    • mmm, not sure about that. Newsnight last week showed a surge in library membership, because its free OLD books..Khurram
    • Daily Show/Colbert Report also had a piece on growing library membership.Khurram
    • ah! of course! soory spooks, nae luck.kelpie
    • i'm sure he has more strings to his bow than just book covers... spooky? spooky???Khurram
  • kelpie0

    actually, you're right. Maybe open a cobblers instead

    • or a fucking library! I have, like, over a hundred books!kelpie
  • designbot0

    Let's look at the tangible effects if you want to call it that. How has everyone in here been affected so far? This recession has been going on for some time already....so how has everyone in here been actually been affected? So far for me personally there have been no dramatic changes. Just curious to see what others in here have to say. I get the impression that some people in here think that some apocalypse is going to occur overnight.

    • hasn't been going for some time. Uk to ENTER recession in 2009 according to Bank of England head...Khurram
    • I clearly remember over a year ago a co-worker (here in US) freaking out about a recession and being all paranoid about it.designbot
    • you clearly don't think for yourself.Khurram
    • your clearly a sensationalist.designbot
    • clearly...Khurram
    • hahadesignbot
  • kelpie0

    well as one example, a friend of mine books gigs for a living, she told me that everyone in here industry is getting nervous to the extent that ever new venue request by tour management is being downgraded to the next largest venue by promoters. Everyone knows that sooner or later people are going to stop going out as much and places wont fill. This is a pretty good eg of what may happen generally and "we" service those kind of companies requirements in large part.

    • interesting how it seems to be all speculation.
      I think that could hurt everyone more then anything else.
      designbot
  • Khurram0

    I'm almost finished a book called "A Mind of Its Own - How Your Brain Distorts and Deceives"

    There's a chapter in it called "The Vain Brain", which is about how our egos shield us from the truth, painting specifically rosey picture in the face of contrary evidence.

    "We think it will be so, simply because we would prefer it to be so."

    As in people who smoke and think "well, i'll never get lung cancer, i'll be in the small percent who escape."

    But really, it is quite natural. According to psychologists, there is only one category of people whose perceptions are more balanced and closer to reality. - who assign success and failure more even-handedly, and their predictions for the future are more realistic. They are the clinically depressed.

    So yeah...

    • I think for other people it boils down to an issue of Faith. Not to sugarcoat or be delusional about anything. But to accept that it is completely out of your control.designbot
    • completely out of your control.designbot
    • Dude you read far too many "How The Brain" books.SkyPoo
    • You don't read enuogh...Khurram
    • I've read more about that than you might realise. Enough to know that 'know thyself' is the moral of the story.SkyPoo
    • it's not a competition.Khurram
  • SkyPoo0

    My thing is I have no niche. I'm not book covers any more than I'm record sleeves, and I'm neither of those any more than I'm a press ad for an FMCG product. I am also neither traditional nor online, what I produce can be digital or print.

    The thing is this: Big wheels keep on turning. Every single year a new set of consumers hits the street, along with a new set of speculators, and entrepreneurs, and it comes good again, and in the meantime... if it goes bad it goes bad across the board for all, and though some might squeezed more than others, at the end of the day we're all on the same big dipper so what's the point in sitting there fretting about it. What are going to do... get off the ride, go and subscribe to a different economy?

    I'm sure that things will go more digital as the years roll by, but I'm equally sure that would have happened even if there was no recession... its the future.

    I'm going to have the sticky toffee pudding. I'm feeling a bit cheeky. Who's with me?

    • I'll have the strawberry sorbet cheers pal, we should get an other bottle of wine as well yo!.chossy