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The "R" word? 6262 Responses
Last post: 4 years, 6 months ago | Thread started: Oct 22, 08, 4:04 a.m.
- johnnnnyh
I'd like to share the SkyPoo optimism but I'm way too much the realist for that. Having experienced the R word before I'd say that things don't go quite as SP thinks. No additional spending, no aggressive marketing, instead everyone just shuts down and makes do. Without money/funds/budgets no one spends on anything they don't feel they need. Also, if you have money you don't spend because you have the "just in case" mentality, where you don't want to risk your money just in case you need it later. That's because the end is rarely "in sight" and until it is, you don't play risk.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 8:31 a.m. – Permalink
- Khurram
"I for one will spend the next few months learning as much about the financial system as possible. The investment opportunity of a lifetime is just around the corner.... Glory times!
"
Always see the positive, and save my money, and buy a bomb-shelter. Preperation is exasperation. Revolution in innovation... to the station.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 8:33 a.m. – Permalink
- SkyPoo
The problem with these pessimistic outlooks is that they're very absolutist. It will absolutly be bad, and absolutely unprecedented, and we'll absolutely all be in the right old shitter.
But the world isn't absolute. Its a human tendency to see the world as less dynamic and multi-faceted than it actually is. Some things will change, some will remain the same, we will experience some difficulties and we will discover some new opportunites. Life doesn't stand still.
I started working in 1985. I'm not sure how many official recessions I've worked through but I know that each has been a rewarding experience in some way. I came out of college in 93 but had worked for the three years I was in college with no problems anyway. I was freelancing and over-booked in the late 90's downturn and employed in the 2001-2002 slump. I set up on my own during that one and made more money in 2003 than I've ever seen before or since.
Stop fearing change. Let go of the idea that money gets shuttled off into space never to be seen again. Its all there, its just staying put for a while. Then before you know it Khurram will invest in the opportunity of a lifetime and we'll all be saved from a pauper's grave.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 8:38 a.m. – Permalink
- johnnnnyh
yeah, I know what you're saying SkyPoo and I began my working life in 1982 so I weathered a few recessions too and to be honest I didn't really notice them. But I am slightly worried that this one might bite me on the arse . . . and in this discussion I really do hope you are right and I am wrong. Certainly there is logic in your argument. It's just possible though that the world is neither absolute as you say but nor is it logical either.
There will be no return to boom and bust that's for sure.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 8:45 a.m. – Permalink
- Khurram
"There will be no return to boom and bust that's for sure."
That's what they said last time...
You know what i find galling is the way every two-bit economist on tele is trotting out "it's the return of Keynesianism" "Keynesian economics predicted this" it's all about the "Keynes.."
when they spent the last 30 years destroying the foundations of Keynesian economics.
You know, IMO, the fault of this "recession" is OUR fault. It's the people who elected these political leaders demanding of them to provide ever more unrealistic economic prosperity. Boom and bust is the only system that gives you these dizzying highs.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 8:49 a.m. – Permalink
- roundabout
I was around in the recession of 1991 and some very good design companies went under then. Recession and advertising do not mix very well, never has done, and it's one industry that gets hit hard, But saying all this in 1991 the internet was not about, so it will be interesting to see how the Internet reacts to recession, and how that reflect back on advertising. It mite be a life saver for us all, and I might have to go back to web design.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 9:13 a.m. – Permalink
- johnnnnyh
"how the Internet reacts to recession"
Good point - I'd not thought of that but actually it will be interesting to see whether it is robust enough an industry to deal with recessionary pressure. I think the key is that with the internet the delivery route is free - so you can sit at home, advertise, update, rebrand whatever and it may not have cost you a bean. Obviously the degree to which you can do this "professionally" will vary greatly.I think that some businesses that should have failed earlier will now fail, since there is less fat in the system to support dead weight businesses. I will be interested to see how other sectors deal with it, for example tourism or events etc.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 9:22 a.m. – Permalink
- akrokdesign
the "R" word?
..like in "R"epublican.
- Dog-earOct 22, 08, 9:21 p.m. – Permalink
- Khurram
http://www.economist.com/opinion…
On October 21st Yahoo! said it would cut its staff of around 15,000 by at least a tenth. Given the internet firm’s woes—its third-quarter profit fell by 64%, to $54m, as online advertising withered—the cuts were perhaps inevitable. Equally striking has been a wave of lay-offs at much smaller start-up companies, which are bracing themselves for a coming recession.
- Dog-earOct 27, 08, 3:11 a.m. – Permalink
- Bluejam
http://www.guardian.co.uk/music/…
"Last night came final and irrevocable proof that the country is entering tough economic times, unseen since the 80s: AC/DC have returned to the top of the album charts for the first time in 28 years."
- Dog-earOct 27, 08, 5:35 a.m. – Permalink
- paraselene
"No one knows if we have reached the bottom of the cycle yet," said Dominic Proctor, the chief executive WPP-owned media operation Mindshare Worldwide. "Marketing dollars haven't dried up yet but they have slowed down in most markets and that will strangle weaker media."
I think you're mis-defining the word 'media' in this context. It actually refers to the publishers themselves who are dependant upon advertising revenue to stay afloat.
- Dog-earOct 27, 08, 6:28 a.m. – Permalink
- Doorman
Shares - stock Market are down..ok....but, it is up to the Governments to speak and to organise a rescue. Politicians are here for the power but it seems that any of them can sort it out. In France, car manufacturers have to stop working for 2 weeks as some spare parts cant be supplied...it is a chain reaction.
Also, oil producters want to drop production as the price of the barrel is falling. We will face a situation of more demand and therefore another raise of the Petrol....a real mayhem...it is all about the power and the big powers dont care about it.....- Dog-earOct 27, 08, 7:53 a.m. – Permalink
- epete22
I think if you bought a home you cant afford you should lose it. If you signed up for adjustable rate mortgages to keep payments low and only pay interest then you should lose your home. The government should not bail people out. For the last 8 years I have seen an insane amount of people out during the work day, shopping, eating, drinking, getting wasted and for all this time I have thought. Don't these people have jobs. Well they may not have jobs but all that purchasing is going on credit. Just buy what you can afford and save for what you want. Or freelance for what you want.
- Dog-earOct 27, 08, 8:35 a.m. – Permalink
