Kamala of the day
Out of context: Reply #143
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Data Scientist's Betting-Odds Model Predicts Kamala Harris Landslide
A data scientist from Northwestern University has gained attention for his unconventional election predictions by using betting markets rather than traditional polls.
"I don't rely on polls. I rely on prediction markets," Miller said. "A political prediction market is a leading indicator of what will happen in an election. People are putting their money down, which means they believe something's going to happen in the future."
"The poll is asking, 'Who do you want to win?' The prediction market says, 'Who do you expect is going to win?' There's a lot of research to justify that the prediction markets are more effective as forecasters than polls," he said.
https://www.newsweek.com/data-sc…
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I totally buy this. Betting markets and Bookies represent people putting their actual money down. Not just empty talk.
What the article doesn’t mention, that I also believe, is that there is no real incentive for polling companies to produce accurate information. They’re selling a product. Some numbers with a story. The better that story is, the quicker it sells. They are not held accountable in the way that someone placing a bet is, or that a bookie setting the odds is.