China

Out of context: Reply #720

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  • yuekit0

    If China invades Taiwan while the war in Ukraine is still going on, will we already be in World War 3?

    Seems likely China, with little left to lose, would then start openly supporting Putin's war in Europe and supplying Russia with arms. The EU and NATO would accelerate support of Ukraine in response. The USA and Japan would intervene to help defend Taiwan.

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    • It's Friday Thread!Nairn
    • The LAST thing China would ever do is invade Taiwan. For years they have been trying political and societal change, economic influence etc.shapesalad
    • Recently the military exercises are looking at 'cutting' off Taiwan, controlling shipping routes and air space over Taiwan.shapesalad
    • Go look at the weather/ocean forecasts each day for the Taiwan Strait and tell me if you think China can not only invade, but sustain the invasion + mil supplyshapesalad
    • Look at how Putin has egg on his face, what was supposed to be an easy few day Take of Ukraine has descended into a mess for Putin.shapesalad
    • You think the CCP are willing to take that amount of risk? Putin could literally drive tanks into Ukraine.shapesalad
    • China needs to navigate a rough strait with frequent typhoons. There's a political part in Taiwan that is CCP controlled,shapesalad
    • they want closer ties to China for peace reasons...This is the preferred route for CCP, if they can get them voted in, it's a lot cheaper and less risky for CCPshapesalad
    • *political partyshapesalad
    • Also look at the demographics of China - they are no young people due to that 1 child policy. There are lots of middle age to old people. Not good for invasionsshapesalad
    • -- However. If USA/EU start making nano thin chips, removing the current reliance on Taiwan... Taiwan loses it's economy and value to the West =shapesalad
    • the Taiwanese will find it tough going economically. Housing there is already crazy priced due to HK fleeing and buying up properties.shapesalad
    • Youth facing no future prospects and tough economics will be more willing to vote in a party that has closer ties to CCP, if a carrot is dangled before them.shapesalad
    • --- I really wish I'd studied economics and international relations and got a job as an Analyst.shapesalad
    • shapesalad I agree...it looks to me like war would be a disaster for China. But the US military seems convinced China is preparing to invade.yuekit
    • https://www.youtube.…yuekit
    • It's not just about Taiwan, because once China takes control of the island they would be able to threaten Japan.yuekit
    • https://scholars-sta…yuekit
    • So it could be a way to push back US forces in the region and coerce Japan and Korea to come over more to China's side.yuekit
    • But yeah I do continue to wonder if the CCP would take the risk. People in Taiwan seem to be less worried than the Americans.yuekit
    • USA have seen the recent China demo of how they can cut off Taiwan. And I think it's worked. USA now saying they don't want to rely on TW chips.shapesalad
    • TW saying to USA - hey, don't forget about us guys. USA and EU have realised it's too economically dangerous to rely on chips from TW and are planning own chipshapesalad
    • manufacturing. Leaving TW alone, is more of a problem of Japan.shapesalad
    • I think the USA is still very committed to it. Notice how Biden repeatedly said they would intervene militarily.yuekit
    • Also there's the AUKUS deal, Japan is building up its military and the USA is expanding its bases on the Philippines.yuekit
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