Russia-Ukraine Invasion

Out of context: Reply #1602

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    2

    https://twitter.com/gummibear737…

    [thread]:

    I reponded that America is footing most of the bill for this

    He laughed, hard

    He said: win, lose or draw, the Americans win

    Main points
    -“Money” being sent to Ukraine is mostly in form of arms/weapons
    -They’re sent via “lend-lease” meaning Ukraine will have to pay it back

    2

    -It wasn’t until after Ukraine showed that it would not be occupied by Russia, that the US committed big budgets and armaments
    -After the war, the EU will be on the hook for rebuilding Ukraine, integrating them into the union and thus helping pay back the US lend-lease arms

    3

    -The US is passing off older, strategically obsolete weapons which would eventually be replaced (HIMARS)
    -The US didn’t part with any of their most effective and technologically advanced systems (helicopers, planes)
    -NATO is strengthened under US leadership

    4

    -America will achieve all its strategic objectives on the cheap
    -Europe will need to invest in their military which will mean big business for the US
    -Russian armaments have been exposed as inferior so Russia will lose global marketshare to the US military industry

    5

    -Europe is essentially decoupled from the Russian energy tit, creating a huge opportunity for US LNG
    -Europe falls completely out of Russian influence
    -The Russian military is grounded down by Ukraine with no American soldiers dying
    -Russia finished as a threat to US influence

    6

    -The US can now focus all military attention towards containing China
    -This is also a wakeup call for EU to take China seriously as a military adversary
    -EU-China relations have been set back decades in terms of cooperation

    7

    -The days of the US having to twist the EU’s arm to not let Huawei build their 5G system are over
    -China’s slow moving influence campaign into Europe is essentially done
    -China now needs to think much harder about invading Taiwan...both militarily and strategically (sanctions)

    8

    The conclusion was that whatever the actual costs to the US, it’s peanuts compared to the accomplishment of these strategic objectives which will be reaping dividends for years to come

    Ultimately the EU will shoulder most of the suffering while the US reaps the benefits

    9

    Some people are asking me for proof...it’s an analysis...and it’s by someone else

    You can fact check the lend-lease aspect but even if it’s not repaid it doesn’t change the main point

    I did a deepdive on this in May but didn’t touch much on geopolitics

    10

    https://gummibear737.substack.co…

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    • Huge if true
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    • You don't get something for nothing...PhanLo
    • I thought this was all pretty apparent?_niko
    • +1 nikoPalindrome
    • It's ok. The HIMARS are doing wonders. And better getting the gas from the US than Russia.NBQ00
    • This will only hold with democrats in power both in the US and EU. Anything far side will mean joining the dark side
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    • Democrats in the EU you say?monospaced
    • Pardon, meant liberals, centrists more or less, not far right or conservatives
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    • I seemonospaced
    • The connection to China seems tenuous there.i_monk
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