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Out of context: Reply #583
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- sarahfailin0
It's disingenuous for anyone to say we're not headed towards a recession. We may already be *in* one. Here are 3 strong indicators:
1. The bond yield curve is the most inverted it's been since before the Great Recession, and this phenomenon has preceded every recession for the last 100 years. The yields between the 3 MONTH bond (2.38% today) and the 10 YEAR bond (2.63%) are rapidly approaching each other, which is even scarier. ((Longer term bonds should pay more than short term ones for those who don't know.)) Track the yield curve here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/seri…
2. There was a major oil price spike! This may be more of a correlation than causation thing, but higher cost of energy makes everything else cost more too.
3. Receding GDP. We had reductions in GDP the last two quarters, which isn't surprising given how fiery hot the economy has been. What goes up must come down.