The Russia thread.
Out of context: Reply #491
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- Beeswax0
This is pretty good brief written before the invasion.
https://behorizon.org/escalation…
If the diplomacy or deterrence fails or if one side intentionally escalates the crisis, we might face a new Russian invasion employing distinct features from the first invasion. Instead of protracted hybrid warfare as Russia launched between 2013-2016, in this last initiative Russia would highly likely conduct limited but disruptive military operations while shaping geopolitical landscape in its favor. Russia would most likely use vast cyber and electronic warfare equipment, as well as long-range hypersonic missiles, if it invaded Ukraine. The goal would be to instill “shock and awe” on Ukraine, leading its defenses or will to fight to crumble. This new Russian approach does not necessarily mean that Russians will not use non-kinetic political warfare ways and means. Russia would likely continue to export corruption, use illicit money flows and finance pro-Russian groups in Ukraine, use blackmail, launch covert activities of politically connected gangs, NGOs, conduct psychological warfare, spread disinformation and fake news.On the other hand, with the help of external support such as the US Stingers, Iron Dome, Mi-17s (which were being readied for Afghanistan by the US), counter-artillery radars, Javelin anti-tank missiles or NLAWs, or Turkish drones, better command and control, electronic warfare, and reconnaissance capabilities might help Ukraine. Moreover, a military hardened by seven years of fighting in eastern Ukraine might cause high costs than Russian leaders expected, or a prolonged Ukraine resistance. Thus, if ground troops fail, Russia may raise the stakes by carpet bombing, as it did in Chechnya and Aleppo.
The US and Europe should prepare for the worst to come. This preparation should, inter alia, include efforts to:
Create the strongest deterrence to make Russia back down from an incursion,
Provide strong support to Ukraine to define its own future in the face of a probable incursion,
Be prepared for future similar provocative actions of Russia and re-evaluate its toolbox to deter them,
Consider sanctions and their side effects on Western investors, and think innovatively on probable alternatives,
Cooperate and seek favourable pricing for EU members with alternative LNG suppliers to include US, Qatar, and Australia to alleviate dependency on Russian gas.