China

Out of context: Reply #539

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  • yuekit1

    I actually don't think China is 100% happy about this. While it might seem superficially similar to Taiwan, one difference is that China likes to think that their claim over Taiwan is backed by international law. Of course this is highly debatable but there is a case to be made with the "One China Policy" and many countries support them on this.

    Putin is now carrying out a similar act but doing it in a totally reckless way, not even pretending to follow the law, being condemned by the United Nations etc. All the African countries that support China on Taiwan are against what Russia is doing.

    So China is supporting Russia but not too enthusiastically. In fact they even said this:

    “Sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of any country should be respected and safeguarded, because this is a basic norm of international relations. Ukraine is no exception."

    https://www.politico.eu/article/…

    Another aspect is that if Putin succeeds in pacifying Ukraine fairly quickly then this might provide momentum for annexation of Taiwan. However if it turns into a disaster then what lesson will be drawn from this?

    yuekit 1Permalink
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    • Could the US and the west still defend Taiwan if it got sucked into a war in eastern Europe?Chimp
    • It's difficult to say because no one knows exactly what the USA would do if China invades Taiwan. Clearly Taiwan is much more important than Ukraine,yuekit
    • 21st largest economy in the world and #1 producer of semiconductors. Also US has obligation to help Taiwan resist invasion, which is not the case with Ukraine.yuekit
    • But some think it will be logistically difficult for the USA to defend Taiwan, esp as China's military power increases. So it's a very complicated situationyuekit
    • Diff there is that US is post Asian Pivot and, I believe, there are a lot more invested and pro-active actors locally versus the neutered and feeble EUNairn
    • ie. How would Japan, S Korea, Indonesia or even India, etc, respond?Nairn
    • Out of those countries Japan would be most threatened and most likely to act. There's a reason Japan is reviving their military.yuekit
    • China's strategy will be to try to deny USA and other countries the ability to get anywhere near Taiwan once they have launched an invasion.yuekit
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