Coronavirus
Out of context: Reply #4429
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Recently a member of QBN shared two charts of numbers (of COVID cases vs deaths) and claimed that this was proof of herd immunity. Another member argued that it's because doctors and nurses are better at treating COVID now.
For the record, no one from the CDC has claimed we are anywhere near herd immunity. Dr Fauci has specifically said that herd immunity does not exist anywhere at this time.
I'm going to use the numbers from NY because COVID has been in this state the longest and because we might assume that the northeast contains reasonable averages because of the high number of hospitals and researchers centered here.
https://www.nytimes.com/interact…
These charts get updated, so this post will become outdated. I can't predict the future. As of Jan 14, 2021 cases are WAY UP in NY and deaths are lower than April 2020 when Covid deaths in NY peaked. However, while deaths are lower than the peak, they are much higher than the summer. And rising.
Now if you look at just two more charts, the picture starts to become clearer. First is daily tests: way up. This could explain why cases are way up. As COVID is often mild or asymptomatic, more testing would result in higher case numbers. This is why people look at deaths vs cases.
Next look at hospitalizations. These are way up, not as high as the peak in April '20, but still much higher than the peak. We currently are hospitalizing about TWENTY TIMES the number of people that we did in the summer.
More testing does not cause more hospitalizations, nor does it cause more deaths. Yet these are higher, and rising.
SUMMARY:
1. Case numbers in NY are skyrocketing, but so is testing. If we ignore deaths and hospitalizations, we might mistakenly believe that the COVID situation is improving. It is not.2. Hospitalizations and deaths are much higher than last summer. They are also trending upwards, which is very scary. It means things are bad and getting worse.
3. Hospitalizations are much higher than deaths (relative to earlier numbers.) This suggests we may be getting better at treatment of serious cases.
These numbers could never on their own prove the cause. However, it is very clear THAT HERD IMMUNITY DOES NOT EXIST AT THIS TIME.
Please continue to take precautions. Meet people outside, stay 6 feet or more apart, wear masks, wash your hands. Stay safe out there. Keep your head about you.
- TL;DR... there is no herd immunity. The situation is bad and getting worse. Take appropriate precautions.********
- whoops a typo: regarding hospitalizations it should say "not as high as the peak in April '20, but still much higher than the summer."********
- for the record, the deaths are lower because of improved treatment over the last few months, confirmed by Northwell Health front linemonospaced
- Yes but by how much? Looking at the charts above and knowing that hospitalizations precede deaths by a week or two, it’s not looking good********
- Most likely, dead people are above 70 years old, and people with co-morbidity. Obese, diabetes, respiratory issues etc....ApeRobot
- the rate of death is lower than it was in the beginning, because treatments and procedures have been refined and improved over the months, ffsmonospaced
- TL;DR... there is no herd immunity. The situation is bad and getting worse. Take appropriate precautions.