Coronavirus
Coronavirus
Out of context: Reply #3666
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- kingsteven2
Stop reading that shite... Here's two good articles about what we understand about pandemic waves and how they apply to Covid from a virologist and a couple of Oxford professors in evidence-based medicine.
- Intuition says this pandemic will be a slow burn, going well into 2024 when we can really produce enough vaccine for everybody worldwidegrafician
- More concerned about the growing trend of not trusting the science and ppl being stupid and reckless, the next global pandemic will be really really bad...grafician
- ...and with growing climate change, it could come from anywhere and very hard to stop with waves of migration due to climate changegrafician
- Thanks, I was going to ask for some good sources in the other comments thread. But after reading these, seems like they are both just saying we don't know?yuekit
- First one gives some credence to the idea that the virus might spread better in colder climates. From what I've read elsewhere these viruses have a coating thatyuekit
- solidifies in cold, dry climates, allowing it to survive longer outside the human body. And you saw significant outbreaks in China, Korea, Iran, Northern Italyyuekit
- and New York when there was colder weather in those places. But none of that happened in isolation, there's no way to separate out all the other factorsyuekit
- yuekit have a look at excess mortality rate by age for the spanish flu, during the main peak the RR (ratio of deaths to normal rate) peaks for 25 y/o with verykingsteven
- little excess for the elderly, there are some comparisons to be made to covid (the effect of social distancing city-to-city for example)kingsteven
- but for this to happen: https://i.imgur.com/…
covid would need to become a completely different viruskingsteven - bear in mind this also just as troops returned from WW1 and we didn't have anything like the medical infrastructure and medicines we have today...kingsteven
- * SARS-CoV-2 would need to become a completely different viruskingsteven
- but i guess what i'm getting at and why i post most of the time on here is to counteract the treatment of 'worst case' models (used by WHO, CDC etc.)kingsteven
- as synonymous with 'the science' - they exist for a reason and most folks with a brain understand that it's to make us comply with distancing measures...kingsteven
- the rest either comply without questioning or validate their conspiracies based on a feeling of 'something isn't right'... i think the amplification of govt.kingsteven
- statistics by the media and a denial of alternative scientific hypothesis in the US is essentially Fauci and Trump as good cop/bad cop played out nationally.kingsteven
- after 6 months, society should have done a better job of educating the public in to an understanding of virology rather than treat them as an axis of idiots.kingsteven
- Yeah I think one of the most poorly communicated aspects by the media is the difference in death rate by age. I checked to see how many people in myyuekit
- age group died from the virus, and it's literally just a few thousand people in the entire USA. So if you want to take a skeptical view I think you couldyuekit
- legitimately argue that old people/boomers, who are mostly the ones in charge of society, are shutting down the entire society over a virus that is a threat toyuekit
- them personally, while screwing over everyone else in the process.yuekit
- Of course you hear a lot of stories about younger people who spent weeks in the hospital, or who are still suffering the effects. So clearly it is dangerousyuekit
- But I think a lot of people would still be surprised to see the actual breakdown by age.yuekit
- yep, i remember months ago crunching the numbers it would be around 3000 <65 deaths to achieve the 69% theoretical herd immunity in the UK based on NYC figureskingsteven
- given only 20% of folks are >65... i'd say now those numbers are too high. of course most elderly who died required care and for most thats how they got it.kingsteven
- it is scary how it infects all organs, in many ways the lasting legacy of spanish flu was that it reduced life expectancy by something terrifying like 12 years.kingsteven
- but i think largely we've failed to contain covid worldwide and there's no question that we could have failed quicker :D "Life can only be understood backwards,kingsteven
- but it must be lived forwards." We have some serious lessons to learn from how this pandemic was handled...kingsteven
- ^the really scary part is IF we do learn...grafician