Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #2751

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  • kingsteven2

    Interesting paper suggests 'disease-induced' herd immunity can be much lower than the traditional herd immunity calculation we use for vaccines...

    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.03085…

    The model used in the paper reduces herd immunity from 60% to 43% based on social activity - obviously it's not exact parameters (because no one knows) but it seems they've been moderate in their assumptions.

    It also goes on to show in the event of no vaccine - strict lockdown measures with a gradual reduction in distancing measures can end up with more deaths in the long run than moderate measures.

    kingsteven 2Permalink
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    • Yup, which is why I'm curious to see a country by country comparison in a year or so's time, to see which strategy worked 'best'. Cos no cunt nose now.Nairn
    • yup we'll find out eventually that sweden was right all along ;)renderedred
    • assuming that > 43% of UK are not venerable and don't live in venerable households - they're also the ones most removed from risk of infection by lockdown...kingsteven
    • in less built up areas of the UK over 50% of deaths are in care homes. thats a trend that may continue even as hospital deaths fall, if we don't keep hospitalskingsteven
    • full, by not easing lockdown we could end up killing more old folks in the long run. it's going to be most telling in Scandinavia, for me it stresses thekingsteven
    • importance of not letting political motivation get in the way - reopening business may be the best way to infect a non-venerable demographickingsteven
    • ie. the economic solution and altruistic solution (if you don't believe that vaccination is an option) may be one and the same.kingsteven
    • Most countries haven't passed 4%, many are at 2% and it's been just a couple months...
      ********
    • a lot of those studies graf are also showing very low CFR for healthy <65's. going by UK deaths seroprevalence will be far higherkingsteven
    • 43% of the UK is most definitely not venerable, nor particularly much of the other 37%.Nairn
    • this paper is too simplistic to be taken seriously. it even says that it's only "an illustration"dorf
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