Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #2186

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  • kingsteven4

    Preliminary serology study results of 500 patients from Gangelt (one of Germany's worst effected municipalities) demonstrate IFR of 0.37

    Interestingly the report also suggests that the initial viral load may dictate the severity of the infection/ outcome. ie. being exposed to a small amount of the virus or better hygiene reduces severity.

    https://www.krankenhaushygiene.d…

    Another study shows that deaths of "People <65 years old and not having any underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.3%, 0.7%, and 1.8% of all COVID-19 deaths in Netherlands, Italy, and New York City."

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/…

    So, if I average that to 1% and using an IFR of .37 - if your healthy and under 65 your chance of dying from covid-19 is something like 1 in 30,000?

    Early days, but if this is all confirmed globally I imagine we'll see massive changes to lockdown procedures for <65's

    kingsteven 4Permalink
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    • The whole Viral Load thing's been mentioned a lot over the past few weeks - makes sense, give the sort of people getting bad cases of itNairn
    • Indeed. What many have said from the beginning. It’s not a death sentence to most people.monospaced
    • Pfiu!
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    • yeah, its nice to see 'best-case' scenarios backed up by testing. in the german study they are being quite conservative about the estimate.kingsteven
    • the viral load/ severity thing has many implications. including variolation (the method they used to inoculate against small pox) before the vaccinekingsteven
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