Coronavirus
Out of context: Reply #2019
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Just seen the latest numbers, almost 300k infected in the US I mean starting to question these numbers, how they test this fast?!
Also from other sources, I get that the virus cases are about 14% severe and 5% critical overall - the rest are mild and don't need hospitalisation - so about 20% of cases need ICU beds
So if the ICU beds in the USA are about 34 per 100k people, that's about 112000 ICU beds in the country
Rrrright so if they are only testing people that come in so at least severe cases that means 300k people are severe cases that need hospitalisation rn?! That means the ICU beds are already full twice?! wtf?!
Not to mention if 300k (tested) are severe+critical cases meaning 20% of the actual number of infected, that would be around 1.5 mil REAL CASES with a current death rate of 0.5% (8k dead) and with a median dead rate going of about 5% (Italy Spain have 8-12%) that would mean at least 75k more dead?!
NY has almost 100k confirmed so again with 34 ICU beds per 100k people, thats about 2800 ICU beds (for 8 mil people in NY) so how can they help 100k infected people with 2800 ICU beds?! the death rate is now around 2k in NY so that's around 2% about the same with the country death rate (8k out of 300k) of 2.6%
California has about 4500 cases with 89 dead so that's again a 2% death rate BUT they just said "California governor says 126,000 people have been tested for coronavirus statewide" so how the fuck can they only have 4500 cases out of 126k tested if they test only people with at least severe symptoms?!!?
Overall about 40-60% cases are asymptomatic so imagine the real number of about 2-2.4 mil REAL cases in the US rn
Oh...
- Anyways, don't trust the numbers, forget the numbers, just live your life and fuck it********
- It’s not 300,000 hospitalizations. Only a percentage of those need hospitalization. Most are told to go home and isolate and treat the symptoms.monospaced
- A lot of people tested negative because they probably had the flu or something else.monospaced
- The vast majority of cases aren’t tested AT ALL and tests are only given to the MOST severe symptoms. Not the other way around. They turn you away ifmonospaced
- if you don’t seem critical (respiratory).monospaced
- If the REAL number of cases really is far far higher, then the death rate logically is far lower and so is the hospitalization chance. That’s just math.monospaced
- aggregating resources (beds) nation-wide is no good, of 3140 US counties, only 10 have over half of all cases********
- @mono right, like I said, they only test most severe symptoms so 300k people means at least 200k severe? agree?********
- @mono so that's 1 mil actual overall cases (20% severe+critical cases out of 100%)********
- @mono and with 8k real dead, that's 0.4-0.5% overall death rate - way lower than expected and a great source of hope?********
- Possibly.monospaced
- Anyways, don't trust the numbers, forget the numbers, just live your life and fuck it