Coronavirus

Out of context: Reply #1409

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  • utopian0

    Will warm weather really kill off Covid-19?

    Some people hope that outbreaks of the new coronavirus will wane as temperatures rise, but pandemics often don’t behave in the same way as seasonal outbreaks. BBC Future looks at what we know.

    https://www.bbc.com/future/artic…

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    • Well, look: it's late summer and fucking hot in the southern hemisphere, and South America and Africa both have Covid-19 now, cases growing exponentially.Continuity
    • I think we can but this particular bit of wishful thinking to bed.Continuity
    • *putContinuity
    • Good article, this explained it more clearly than anything else I've read.yuekit
    • You do realize it's summer for half the planet? This is total fiction, it's been 20+ celcius in Wuhan, Australia has it, etc.zarkonite
    • Average temp in Wuhan in January = between zero and 8 degreesyuekit
    • Look at the countries that have the most cases. The top 10 countries all have cold climates.yuekit
    • You have to get to #16 Australia before you get to a somewhat warm country, and it’s only around 20 degrees there currently.yuekit
    • The temperature in Wuhan is above 10 celcius today? You should look at how many tests are being performed and what kind of metrics they use to choose to testzarkonite
    • you'll see that australia is not performing as many tests as the "top" countries but if you look at the porportion of positives to tests they're in line withzarkonite
    • everyone else. It's basically a case of bad stats due to a test rationing. There is no scientific evidence that this virus is less aggressive in warm weather.zarkonite
    • They've observed some seasonality in coronaviruses but not all, so this is a toss up as far as evidence is concerned.zarkonite
    • I don't think it's unfounded. Look at the affected regions. Something like 80-90% of the cases are in cold or moderately cool countries.yuekit
    • And yes you could say it's a testing issue...but if there was really an epidemic you would expect to see some signs, mass deaths, hospitals overrun.yuekit
    • Also if you read the article utopian posted it explains there is a specific reason why coronaviruses do better in hot climates.yuekit
    • In order to survive outside the human body, they rely on a membrane to protect the virus as they float through the air. In cold weather the membrane lastsyuekit
    • longer whereas in heat it dissolves more easily. Likewise in cold climates the virus can last on surfaces such as metal etc for days longer.yuekit
    • None of that means it can't spread in hot climates, just that you would expect to see a more muted impact. At least until the seasons change.yuekit
    • Sorry above should read...*why coronaviruses do better in cold climatesyuekit
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