Politics

Out of context: Reply #30851

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  • yuekit1

    What a War With Iran Would Look Like

    https://www.foreignaffairs.com/a…

    "Even short of such worst-case scenarios, any war with Iran would tie down the United States in yet another Middle Eastern conflict for years to come. The war and its aftermath would likely cost hundreds of billions of dollars and hobble not just Trump but future U.S. presidents. Such a commitment would mean the end of the United States’ purported shift to great-power competition with Russia and China."

    However Americans themselves seem ready to pull the trigger, especially Republicans...

    yuekit 1Permalink
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    • how does us adults come into play in these stats? was a large sample done at recess?link didn't have info about it
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    • even if they were responsible, you'll send your sons and daughters to die over shipping lanes and commerce? this is exactly what SA wants. idiots._niko
    • The Republitards sure do love their endless trillion dollar wars that they never seem to win.utopian
    • According to a Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report published in October 2007, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could cost taxpayers...utopian
    • ...a total of $2.4 trillion by 2017 when counting the huge interest costs because combat is being financed with borrowed money.utopian
    • https://en.wikipedia…utopian
    • #Winning
      #MAGA      utopian
    • is this a party hit piece? even the link doesn't give reason that supports the graph. Its actually pretty non partisan. but you got utopian to wave a flag
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    • Here is the source of the poll:
      https://today.yougov…      yuekit
    • hmm i dont see the graph nor the base data. i dont even see why the "adult" is a category
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    • its interesting so little info about their polling but very vocal about extrapolating the data to half of the US
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    • do you not smell that?
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    • the site for the data also seemed suspect. quite interesting the backers. makes more sense for special interest than any journalism
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    • could this possibly be political drivel bait for suckers too push ukit? no harm if you fell into the trap. fuck we all make mistakes.
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    • haha it's a very standard poll from a well known polling company. You seem very defensive about the GOP and their voters, as if they are not well known foryuekit
    • being warmongers. The Iraq War would likely never have happened without overwhelming support from conservative voters. So yea, it's hardly a surprising result.yuekit
    • I believe the R's stance, but those numbers still seem insanely high. I don't know a single person that doesn't see what's happening now for what it is.formed
    • well you can project all you want but im really simply curious about the US adults bar. Its strange and makes me want to see the polling data.
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    • i hardly ever equate brands or names with any kind of merit. Value objectively. i didnt even know there was a popular statista thing. interesting
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    • so any data link to the polling data or info about the us adults bar?
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    • Geez...the source of data is already in the link I posted above. Stop complaining just because you can't be bothered to do the basic work of looking stuff up :)yuekit
    • dont be a dick ukit. the yougov link i dont see any poll info relating to the statista graph
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    • i even googled and tried to find the polling info on the graph but didnt have much success.
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    • and come one US adults! that measurement is still so weird
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    • It's literally at the bottom of the page I linked: https://d25d2506sfb9…yuekit
    • But why question the data? Are you a pollster or statistician? Or just don't like the results?yuekit
    • Why question the data? Like for this question there is actually far more data for this questions that paints a very different picture
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    • Why question the data? Like for this question there is actually far more data for this questions that paints a very different picture
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    • the us adult is not a dataset. maybe a designer fucked that up. or 18-29 not considered adults
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    • unfamilair with " A random sample (stratified by gender, age,
      race, education, and region) was selected from the 2014 American
      Community Study"
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    • we're in advertising we know how easy it is to manipulate data to show shit that isnt true. looking at the data is and methodology is very important
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    • i'd like to know more about demographic sampling. because 1500 is pretty small sample. Not sure i believe there small margins of error
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    • think sometimes that shit is made up liek brand guideline stuff. hell look at all the polling wrong in 2016 elections. if it was science
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    • why was it so wrong. russians?
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    • So because you know nothing about polling and can't be bothered to look it up it's questionable somehow? haha cmon...yuekit
    • In the time you took to write those comments you could have looked up what is an acceptable sample size for a poll...and found out that 1,500 is actuallyyuekit
    • larger than average.yuekit
    • Ha ukit dont try to spin it. I mean look up there reference to "2014 American
      Community Study" to understand more the data sampling. Region, city, and methods.
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    • a trick in statisitics is to layer sources, its attrition. But seriously look at page 40 for the question and see all the stuff they didnt graph.
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    • hell i'm lazy and yet still probably went farther than you did. i'll always hold polling questionable because of how its used. again remember recent polling in
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    • elections. or ways to shape data on a wordpress theme for 3 callouts that look great on a case study
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    • simply put the data omitted from the graph paints a much larger picture why would those datasets be chosen to be left off? What was the graphs bias point?
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    • Oh. Ha going back i see why i didn't see anything in the link. paywall.
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    • my only real interest was the graph data. and now i know its a graphic design fuck up looking at the data
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    • Hmmm yea there's really unusual about a poll that asks multiple questions and chooses to highlight one of them in a graph.yuekit
    • And you were wrong about the sample size thing too. And no, polling in general is not made up or fake. Anything else? ;)yuekit
    • I never said polling is fake. Its very unreliable and biased. But not sure what I got wrong about sample size? Didn;t know i mention it except for extrapolation
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    • You said 1500 is too small of a sample size, it's actually totally fine and higher than average. And no polling in general is not unreliable lol.yuekit
    • You were calling it a party hit piece, which seemed to suggest you see it as an attack against Republicans to make them look bad or something.yuekit
    • But other polls on the topic of war and foreign intervention have shown very similar results unfortunately. I wish it wasn't the case, but Americans seem veryyuekit
    • trigger happy when it comes to war and especially Republicans/ conservatives.yuekit
    • well i absolutely disagree about polling citing again 2016 elections as excellent source. as far as range 1500 for extrapolation is still far too small and
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    • margin of error i'd never agree. not that it isnt sufficient for data manipulation. and doesnt serve its own purposes
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    • if the data was fully presented from the case study than showed in the graph it would defintiely take on a different message than the graph
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    • do you disagree with that?
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    • you know i think what it is that bugs me is the confirmation bias of such polls with peoples identities and bias. You are right ukit looking at such data it
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    • seems everything is so much easier grouped into parties. yes reps want war and lefts want slavery. but these polls are part of the control and the message
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    • look at 2016 election night i laughed my ass off as what i said would happen happened and people whole reality was dissolved
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    • polls and confirmation bias or substitute herd mentality failed. The media fell on their own sword. but yes you are absolutely right in perceiving the graphs
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    • the way they seem. And without a doubt crafted for such purposes. I'm going off my gut. Maybe im not as smart as i think and i should focus group shit to reling
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    • uish all personal responsibility when forming opinions on demos. Big data will solve everything except mans bias in shaping it
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    • and again i went off topic original post was calling out the weird stat about us adult. it called into question they interviewed children.
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    • which than lead to broader assumptions and questions. Would you agree that the graph is misleading seeing the data only interviewed adults?
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    • I think you are going on and on about a topic you know nothing about. What's wrong with doing a little research before writing 100 comments?yuekit
    • a topic i know nothing about... well one i KNOW my issue with the graph is legit seeing the dataset.
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    • and i KNOW polling is not a hard science. I KNOW also polling is largely politically bias. For one money must come from somewhere for effort. For two said retur
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    • nment on investment of funds. largely for content for ads buys and audiences.
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    • You can deny that or say I have no idea what I'm talking about. But that doesnt make much of an argument for me
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    • Look up the average sample size for a poll for instance, before simply asserting based on your "gut" that it's wrong lol. Here's an article that explains it:yuekit
    • https://www.scientif…yuekit
    • I dont even understand if you think im so unresearched are you implying you are? your reasoning is beginning to look like monos
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    • The idea that polling was way off during the 2016 election is also wrong. The media created the impression that Clinton was going to win, but this is differentyuekit
    • from the polling itself being wrong. In fact, the average of national polling only differed from the final result by about one point.yuekit
    • The US adults thing...no idea what you're talking about there. Imagine if someone (a client maybe) started rambling on and on about a topic you know somethingyuekit
    • about such as design, development etc. from a position of zero knowledge. They would look pretty foolish right? :)yuekit
    • the media portrayed a bias? and that had no feedback bias upon even more polling? Not sure your source for aggregate polling data of 1%/ perhaps another
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    • selective graph? and the "us adults" is a dataset in the graph. but not the data. it implies they polled children or non-adult but let that out of the graph
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    • and i might be foolish thinking they know the client knows nothing. how would i know? afterall design is not hard science either and mostly in eye of the behold
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    • er. my idea of right or portrayal of info may not be their idea of right or portrayal. in other words its very subjective when it comes to data design
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    • but I will say without a doubt the conclusion of the full data set to that question would not have the same meaning as the graph. which is largely my point.
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    • IE only graphing oppose datasets and basing graphically scaling them as a percentage of themselves.
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    • or ignoring party affiliation but keeping same fields and graphing based on total 22% and 25 for strongly and somewhat.
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    • by isolating data we control the message that fits our goals. party aside doesnt 22 and 25 and 22 not sure seem more even keel?
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    • or we can see whites are pretty even but blacks are way against it. and than you can correlate black percentages to liberal and make assumptions based on age
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    • and income. If we take polling as hard science than we should be able to make other assumptions on soft data as education, and societal conidtioning and come
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    • to ageement that most poor black folks will always be liberal based on lack of education and party favors? If we choose to believe these generalizations extrapo
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    • lated true.
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    • and your link takes assumptions into play, admits its largely a mathematical abstraction that changes daily
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    • in other words you cited this graph a couple days ago and now it might not even be relevant and yet we discuss it as such
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    • if something can change so frequently is it a science to accurately follow or to just random test every day and track an average like a stock index? because all
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    • the data proves so accurate there
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    • i just find it so hard for you to admit the simple premise data design (omission and correlation) shapes narratives to designers bias.
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    • deathboy use some common sense. If polling was completely unreliable then it would not be able to predict elections most of the time.yuekit
    • Companies would not invest millions in public opinion polling if there was not a benefit to be gained from it.yuekit
    • What the article I linked actually says is that public opinion changes over time SLIGHTLY to the point where a one percent margin of error vs. a three percentyuekit
    • one is not so important. That doesn't mean you throw out the entire result just because there is some small degree of uncertainty.yuekit
    • It also backs up what I was saying about how a 1,000 or 1,500 person poll can be accurate, which just a short while ago you were convinced wasn't true.yuekit
    • About presenting the data...sure, there's always an editorial decision to be made that includes some stuff and leaves other stuff out. Kind of unavoidable no?yuekit
    • common sense. Maybe i have uncommon sense. polling is a control function of lowest common denominator to support feedback loops and increase odds.
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    • if you poll each day and present to majority you are presenting a narrative that is of its own making. in said data. look im not against polling for gleaming
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    • insights. i dont even care about the number polled as much as how its chosen. which has yet to come up.
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    • as far as editorial dont shrug it off. all editorial is biased. and by nature the data will be manipulated to convey their narrative
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    • and as such all graphs or data pieces should be regarded with high skepitisism. because as you you said bias is avoidable
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    • the perfect example is the way I mentioned the same data could be used to cast a different meaning
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    • that is why companies invest. ways to game peoples ignorance.
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    • and margin of error is a mathematical abstraction in polling methods and criteria. Bad criteria equals bad results
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    • i know ppl believe ai and averages can result in better than normal intelligence but i have yet to see it. again where the technology is most employed is stock
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    • market and using averages and means it is all over the place and hardly accurate however it creates feedback loops of chasing its own tail
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    • but algos are gaming data as an editorial with human bias... goes back to common sense and gut or intuition. i trust my own
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    • and ill take the nice data from the poll and form my own opinions about things
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    • i say we agree on us adults of graph was bullshit. data shows a picture of rep/vs/dem difference in war drumming with a * to more data for better picture.
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    • and should look at full data for own conclusions, because averaging does have a better margin than a no nothing fool
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    • I'm curious what you think the bias or conspiracy behind this poll actually is? If someone conducts a poll and finds a big difference between two voting blocks,yuekit
    • should they NOT point that out? It seems like backwards reasoning to me, from not liking the result to trying to find some reason not to believe it.yuekit
    • you know i actually feel the need to bump post for this because comments getting long in tooth and there is alot more to it all
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