Brexit
Out of context: Reply #1056
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- shapesalad0
Saw this on reddit, accurate analysis of leave voters:
https://www.reddit.com/r/brexit/…
There is an economics experiment called ‘The Ultimatum Game”? It looks into how people enforce norms of fairness - or how spite is natural.
There are variations, but to give the simple gist of it, in this experiment, there are two subjects. One is given some money (sometimes £10, sometimes £100, sometimes £1,000 or more) and told they must offer the other person a share of it.
They can offer as little or as much as they want - they can offer 1p or £999. But if the other person rejects their offer, then neither of them get any money. Also they actually would get to keep the money if the offer was accepted, so it’s not just hypothetical to them.
How much would you reject if you were the one being made the offer? At what point would you say “Well, I’d rather take nothing than let you get away with being greedy”.
Economic theory says you should accept any offer, as you’re still better off than you were before. But human nature just doesn’t work that way.
Across all human cultures, the rejection is usually around 30%. People will forego £30 or £300 just to say “Fuck you” to someone else if they think that person isn’t being fair.
When I hear that, it restores my faith in humanity a little. Damn right you should hit back if someone tries to screw you. Some things are more important than money!
Yet when people do that on a larger scale, and vote for Brexit, they are portrayed as idiots, as fascists, as the downfall of the country.
Over decades, much wealth has been concentrated in London and people have felt ignored on social issues. It’s not surprising that millions of people wanted to stick two fingers up to the elites, even if it means losing out economically.
There's actually a trope for this: https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwi…
But the problem is that those who suffer from the Brexit vote are not just the elites. In fact the elites will probably suffer the least or be completely insulated. I have a a British passport, am I going to suffer? Nope because all my wealth is outside the UK. I have a few dormant bank accounts in the UK and that's it. The ones that will suffer are many ordinary people, and young people starting their careers.
You generally have to face the fact that the frustrations of leavers exist, however justified their frustrations are, the UK economy is going to suffer a huge hit and the country is going to be divided for generations.
You can see it is not about what is best for the country,
Analyse the anger in what they say and what they write. The language of leavers. “You lost, get over it”, or variations such as “Hahahaha” or “Remoaner blah blah” . "salty tears." etc. All of these are provocative statements. These are intentional, there is anger behind them and it gives them a sense of vindication as anybody who tells them they were wrong is actually demonstrating how their will is to be ignored.
So it's all about anger rather than logic or rationality. Therefore it is impossible to change their votes and what they think. This is why a 2nd 3rd or whatever vote the outcome will not change.
When arguments and analyses showing that Brexit will be very damaging to the economy are routinely dismissed as remoaner scaremongering. Or factories ACTUALLY have plans to shut, jobs vanish and there is capital and human capital flight. It is dismissed as the elites trying to protect their privilege.
I mean has anybody actually seen a well thought out plan? Or a good economic analysis of why it will be great? Statistics that show how EU membership or immigration benefits the UK are sidestepped, ignored or dismissed.
So? the point being, it’s not about economic prospects or statistics. Leave voters know, that in order to be credible, they have to pay lip service to these abstract things, usually by saying “we’ll be fine and have faith” or “Who says we’ll be worse off?” well, pretty much every economic forecast, actually.
But look at the tone of the responses and it always suggests that these considerations are secondary or not at all important.
The vote to leave was not about economics, it was more visceral than that. It was about anger. Go back to the opening paragraph and the ultimatum game. It was about telling the elites to stick their 30% up their arse. In fact the economic damage IS the POINT as it's a fuck you to the wealthy, those who have done better than themselves. Anyone harmed by this righteous decision is collateral damage.
This is why I uniquely piss off many of the leavers. In that I am 99% insulated from any brexit fall out. The extent of the damage that has been done to me? I was going to fly to London and rent a bike to ride Europe this summer but probably won't. This is why they go on rants about we're going to fucking nuke China. We're going to invade you again! Even more ironic is that I get to become even wealthier from their decisions.
So brexit will harm even devastate your economy. I was an accountant with a lot of experience in supply chains. Tariffs against your biggest trading partner are insane. Some right now might point to the US China trade war where tariffs are being put both ways. So why isn't China begging and on its knees? Well Hu Jintao after 2008 realised the high dependence on exports and started policies to reduce reliance on exports so the 20% of GDP reliant on exports continued by Xi is now 6% falling to 4% this pivot and readjustment cost about 300bn and took about 8 years and it is still not finished. Remember this is China, the government can do extremely unpopular stuff (but tries to minimise it) and doesn't have to think about future elections in the same way UK governments do.
You and I can see this. It's not just a few pennies on bananas. It's stuff that is assembled, even if parts are made in the UK then it's the materials than go into making them. Add in 2-5% tariff and boom it's suddenly no longer viable. The worst hit parts of the UK from the fallout from Brexit are going to be those areas that voted Brexit as manufacturing/assembly capabilities depart. I mean shit look at the Honda denials, it's nothing to do with brexit. Or Nissan. It's fine! Fuck them. Will Sunderland be ok sans Nissan?
London will fare better than elsewhere, I do not doubt.
Young people who might not find suitable work in the UK because of the above. They might not even get to Auf Widesen pet depending on the visa rules. Why hire somebody who needs a visa and lots of forms to fill in when I can get somebody from Austria or Poland or Belgium? He can just roll up and start work right away.
So whose fault is it? It's successive governments for not investing outside of London and for failing to provide education and jobs, and for failing to effectively integrate immigrant communities and prevent resentment against them.
Those who voted leave did so for very real human motives. Communism on paper is dynamite, it doesn't work because of humans. Economic models can be planned out carefully you can measure all sorts of things but they all have to contend with the wild card that is the human element.
Discussions of Brexit rapidly descend into provocative language like “You lost, get over it” or any one of the numerous variations , guess what? It's designed to deepen division.
This is in no way unique to British people. Look at what happened after 1949. The fuck yous to the imperial western powers. The fuck yous to the elites in the cultural revolution. That put the country back 20 years.
So what do? Sit back and watch (from a safe distance) insulate yourselves. Get some more skills and go live somewhere else for a bit.
If you can't leave then sell shovels in a gold rush.- Lol so much finger pointing at the "Leavers" but in reality it was your politicians had no intention nor desire to follow through. You've been had by your own grobotron3k
- ^ seriously? You think there was no intent to ever leave? Surely it was incompetence all the way throughIanbolton
- On the politicians side zero intent. They don't work in your best interest and it shows. Remember Boaty McBoatface??? Er, Sir David Attenborough!robotron3k