100 Billion
Out of context: Reply #23
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- dorfsman0
It's worth bearing in mind that when people quote the speculated size of the Universe when arguing for the likelihood of other intelligent lifeforms out there the numbers can actually be interpreted to confirm the exact opposite. For example, if planet's like Earth are quite typical, as many hypothesise, then owning to the exceptionally huge numbers involved (the Milky Way alone supposedly contains around 200 to 400 billion stars) the Universe should be positively teeming with life. So as physicist Enrico Fermi asked in 1950 then where indeed are they?
To quote the Fermi parodox wiki page
"The age of the universe and its vast number of stars suggest that unless the Earth is very atypical, extraterrestrial life should be common.[2]"
"The Fermi paradox can be asked in two ways. The first is, "Why are no aliens or their artifacts physically here?" If interstellar travel is possible, even the "slow" kind nearly within the reach of Earth technology, then it would only take from 5 million to 50 million years to colonize the galaxy.[12] This is a relatively small amount of time on a geological scale, let alone a cosmological one. Since there are many stars older than the Sun, or since intelligent life might have evolved earlier elsewhere, the question then becomes why the galaxy has not been colonized already. Even if colonization is impractical or undesirable to all alien civilizations, large-scale exploration of the galaxy is still possible; the means of exploration and theoretical probes involved are discussed extensively below. However, no signs of either colonization or exploration have been generally acknowledged."
"Even if such civilizations are rare, the scale argument indicates they should exist somewhere at some point during the history of the universe, and since they could be detected from far away over a considerable period of time, many more potential sites for their origin are within range of our observation. However, no incontrovertible signs of such civilizations have been detected."
Have a read, it is fascinating stuff:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fer…
More on the Drake Equation too:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The…
and the rare Earth hypothesis: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rar…
The eccentric Ray Kurzweil does an excellent job of analysing the arguments for and against the existence of other intelligent beings in the Universe in his book "The Singularity in Near" concluding that we are indeed alone. This is not to say this is entirely correct of course :) It just sometimes seems an accepted fact that the universe definitely has other intelligent lifeforms when the math can actually rather convincingly illustrate the opposite. Something to think about...- paragraphs man. it's a friday afternoon, and you're asking my eyes a lot right now!twooh
- we're still discovering new life on our own planet, nevermind other planets or star systems or galaxies._niko
- @twooh Sorry man. Copy and pasted my comment from another forum thus formattingdorfsman
- Given the scale of a galaxy, and the technical requirements in interplanetary travel, this is flawed.ETM
- That's like spending your life walking around the world and stumbling across a specific landmark.ETM
- There are still spots on earth not fully explored.ETM
- Beings could be buzzing around the galaxy and easily miss or ignore us.ETM