Politics

Out of context: Reply #1916

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  • ukit0

    Actually, nearly all of the polls you see are "weighted" to match the actual turnout in past elections. So if older voters voted in larger numbers than young voters (and they tend to) the polls will try to correct for that. One of the big questions is whether it makes sense to use the 2000 and 2004 turnout model given the popularity of Obama among younger people and increased turnout among African Americans. But, if you look at what happened in the primaries, the polls were almost always correct in predicting the winner.

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    • But didn't those same polls predict Kerry and Gore?
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