World War 3
Out of context: Reply #257
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2004-2008
Russia builds its own global network to influence political events while showing an image of a power approaching a democratic neo-liberal system to the outside world.2008-2010
Russia starts to influence weak democracies in Europe - with success - in order to build an alliance network from the bottom. There are places where they buy long-term influence by giving heavy discounts on energy carriers and there are the ones where they give financial support to entities that play an influential role in local politics.
The basis of the communicative tactic is the same everywhere: preservation of national identity and sovereign will over strong alliances (EU, NATO).
(Serbia, Ukraine, Hungary)2010-2014
While reports start to emerge about the aggressive actions linked to Russian spies/intelligence services against the service staff of influential European leaders and diplomats Russian capital is buying more and more aggressively everywhere. For the general public an influence campaign begins which mostly exploits the possibilities provided by social media and tries to undermine trust and faith in political institutions and recognized experts in given fields. The presence and influence of Russian people in the Internet becomes noticeable. (Syria, Germany, France, *.Balkans, 4chan :)2014-2016
Pro-Russian unrest erupted in eastern and southern Ukraine after the ousting of Ukraine's pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. Unmarked Russian troops took over government buildings in Crimea and the war on Donbas started. On 17 July 2014 the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17/MAS17) was shot down with international passengers dying. The goal of involving other countries in the war didn't succeed. Trusting to form a serious alliance Russia actively joins the Syrian civil war in the form of air strikes which will last until 2016. Andrei Karlov, the Russian Ambassador to Turkey, gets assassinated few days after the protests against Turkeys involvement in the Syrian Civil War. Donald Trump runs and wins the 45th presidential election of the United States with a very unusual campaign, but with a very well-known tactic. In 2016 the Minsk 2 agreement declares cease-fire, aimed to resolve the Ukraine crisis, Ukraine loses significant areas for the sake of peace. Russia buys political high-level interest in France in order to overthrow the current government.
(Syria, Germany, UK, US, France, Turkey, Ukraine)2017-2019
UK leaving the EU after a very questionable campaign. The economic conflict between China and US grows to a level where the U.S. President Donald Trump calls the situation "trade war" (fucking idiot.). Global alliances weaken as the US cuts spending or pulls out of them. Standing war in Ukraine, exposed spy network and activity in Europe, civil unrest locally, Russia starts to get into more and more trouble. Russia backed Marion Anne Perrine Le Pen runs for presidency in France, she finished second. Military forces linked to Russia are gaining more and more influence in Africa in order to achieve or protect local political interests, often to back Chinese corporate entities.2019-2021
Emergence of a new virus starts a global pandemic. While the whole world is worried and waiting for a solution, when it hits the US a crazy disinformation campaign begins.The primary goal of which is to undermine trust in doctors and Western medicine. In addition to many small details it is obvious that with the aim of making China and the United States jump on each other. There is only one country in the entire world that has the capabilities and motivation to create and exploit such an event. The whole world practically stops for 1.5-2 years giving many opportunities to those who want to achieve their long-term goals. After multiple months of uncertain and difficult to actualize communication on 24 February 2022 Russia attacks Ukraine. Their tactic fails at several points and the three-day special military operation turns into a long-term armed conflict.