Bitcoin
Out of context: Reply #2463
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- shapesalad-2
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You see that spike over the 2000 year? That was the Dot Com Bubble.
You see that spike 2nd spike to the right of the chart? That was Feb 2021, a rally after a few months of stimi cheques being cashed into Robinhood to buy BTC, with a sprinkling of peak meme stock mania...
I wish I'd looked at this chart earlier, I'm now thinking TULIPS when I think Bitcoin/Crypto. And Saylor - I can't stand him, he makes a decent point in the most boring long winded way - but it's very mono sided. It's a slice of thinking. It's not macro. It is indeed 'micro' 'strategy'....
Back in 2011, I had free electricity in my apartment, for around 5 years. I remember in 2011 seeing this bitcoin thread here in QBN and thinking "Oh I could mine bitcoin with my free electricity" I did a little googling one evening... the whole wallet software and mining stuff just seemed a bit nerdy and not really Mac friendly. So I didn't do or think much more about it.
Then in 2013 as bitcoin reach $1k I was thinking, oh.. missed that one, but should I get in? I couldn't get past the thinking that if you buy 1 Bitcoin, you will only ever have 1 Bitcoin as it doesn't pay a dividend, it's only worth what the next person is willing to pay for it. Then MT Gox happened and I thought, yep... dodgy as fuck.
Then 2020 happened... and all the dollar printing got me thinking limited supply Bitcoin is the answer. Raoul Pauls interviews pushed me into thinking, ok lets get some. I did, and it went up. So I got more. Great all good.
But now.. hearing Peter Zeihan call it a dumpster fire, hearing Maverick of Wall St call it Tulips has had me double checking my thinking... If I didn't have any money in bitcoin would I buy now? ... No.
I have money in bitcoin and it's sitting on a 40% loss... do I wed myself to the thesis of limited supply, deflationary, potential potential potential.. or do I cut my loss and get out asap before it drops massively alongside the S&P500.
Looking at Saylors chart.. I think I see my answer.
Crypto is Tulips. It's a niche. It's peaked. NFTs too. It's all downhill from here. It won't die, the overall tech, blockchains, digital transfer, non-fungible... all of that is great.. but it's not mobile phones, it's not the internet, how can it follow metcalfe's law to mass adoption?
- $100k btc. $500k btc. How? Family offices and hedge funds? How can they justify the zero yield on it?shapesalad
- As soon as it reaches $100k, or $500k - that will be a spike. A blow off top. And it'll come crashing back down. What is there to hold it above that value?shapesalad
- Limited supply? But if you get limited demand you get limited value. It only works if everyone wants some, and why do we want some? it's tulip mania.shapesalad
- Stocks - you see the potential of future company growth, or companies are paying out dividends as they cruise at a stable size and profit. Makes sense.shapesalad
- Yup. *POOF*formed
- Like clockwork, this tulip sentiment is parroted every time bitcoin is doing anything. Far more predictable than the market itself.inteliboy
- The entire market is in dire straits btw. BTC is being kinda boring if anything.inteliboy
- This is how Bitcoin dies -- not by going to zero, but by losing volatility, becoming boringdrgs
- Something in crypto will survive, but 99.9% needs to completely die, a la dotcom. Anyone that couldn't see this coming was in lala land.formed
- It's over people. Just send them to me, and I will keep them as a souvenir.Sandder
- no golden city with a big logo in the centre in el salvador then.. who would have seen it coming..neverscared