Russia-Ukraine Invasion
Out of context: Reply #31
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- pablo282
Diary from the Russian front
Short summaries of the day (26.02.2022)
"Northern ("Kiev") front - no significant changes. Regrouping, pulling up the rear and reserves, fighting for some local points.
Central Front (Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkov regions) - troops forced to halt at the reached lines because of supply problems and the presence of large enemy resistance units in the rear. Only the left (very moderate) flank is advancing (very moderately), which is attacking in the north of Luhansk region. According to reports, fighting has begun to clear Chernihiv and a second attempt to clear Sumy is being prepared. There is no information on Kharkiv.
Donetsk Front. The enemy is completing the withdrawal of its forces from the "Starobelski bag" with a minimum impact of artillery and aviation of the Russian Armed Forces, which should be considered a serious success of the AFU, as the unbroken withdrawn units will certainly be reintroduced into battle near Dnepropetrovsk, where the AFU is preparing a resistance unit similar to the Kiev one.
In all likelihood, the same picture can be seen in the Berdyansk-Mariupol area. In the latter, a "suicide" garrison may be left to restrain the DNR and Russian forces, but most Ukrainian units and formations are already hastily withdrawing northwards and will probably appear near Dnipropetrovsk soon, too (if the RF Armed Forces' aviation does not actively prevent them from doing so). In the central section of the front, from Dokuchaevsk to Debaltseve, the enemy is still firmly holding its fortified positions, actively shelling the accumulated ammunition (since it would have to be thrown away anyway during retreat). Both the advance positions of the "corps" and the civilian population are taking their toll.The greatest successes of the third day of the offensive are on the Southern ("Crimean") Front, which continues to expand on its left flank the bridgehead north of Kherson (the city itself is not cleared and is still under AFU control) - bypassing Nikolayev. In all likelihood, even if they reach Mykolaiv today or tomorrow, they will not take it - there is no one and nothing to take it with.
On the right flank, the enemy grouping of Mariupol continues (with fighting now) to the north - to Zaporizhzhya and to the east - to the rear of the enemy grouping. Which, alas, has largely avoided encirclement so far, but is forced to withdraw hastily (which cannot be done at all without losses).Analysis and forecasts for the 4th day of the war.
The extremely successfully launched and successfully continued offensive of the RF Armed Forces due to a number of objective and subjective factors has begun to slow down, which is hardly connected in any way with Putin's alleged order to "suspend it for 12 hours". I doubt very much that this was the case at all. If there was a suspension, it was due to the backlog of the troops and the need for a minimum rest for the personnel.But there was also a consequence of the big mistakes made in the initial planning of the operation. The main one was the "exceptional goodwill" towards the AFU personnel during the initial missile and airborne training. The units and formations of the AFU did not "appreciate" this kindness in any way, and in the overwhelming majority, they entered the battle in an organized manner (although some did not immediately let the RF Armed Forces' BTGs pass by, attacking the defenseless rear units).
As a result, by the end of the third day of the war the operational successes of the RF Armed Forces had not yet (I emphasize - yet!) turned into strategic successes. The Ukro-Army suffered heavy losses, but continues to offer organized and in some places successful resistance, forcing the RF Armed Forces to slow down the rate of advance practically everywhere except on the southern front. However, even the southern front is now facing an acute and objective problem, namely, a shortage of available and reserve forces.
As a result, not a single large AFU unit has yet been encircled. Moreover, the enemy has a good chance, albeit. With considerable losses, but to withdraw the main forces of the Donetsk grouping to the Dnieper, where they can try to stabilize the front, trying to keep two key points - Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk.For tomorrow I predict:
To the south: Actions of the Russian Armed Forces to attempt to encircle and cut off the Donetsk grouping of the AFU and cut it off from escape routes to Yekaterinoslav (Dnepr). I believe the prospects for progress are good, but the ultimate success is unlikely. At the same time - with favorable weather conditions (which are not expected) and the concentration of aviation in this direction - it may well turn the retreat of the AFU from the failed "Donetsk cauldron" into a rout with huge losses for the retreating forces.
However, the enemy, too, will not retreat en masse - its troops in this area are not yet defeated, are fighting steadfastly and their control has not been broken. Therefore unpleasant surprises for the advancing troops are possible.North: neither on the Central Front, nor in the area of Kiev for tomorrow, I do not expect great successes. As long as the resistance nodes in the rear are not eliminated, we can't count on the normal supply of the advancing groups, and the threat to communications will only continue to grow. Offensive actions are possible in the Kiev area, but without deep targets.
The overall conclusion: much has been achieved, but the main tasks are far from being accomplished. The tempo of the offensive is falling, the final defeat of the enemy is getting further away, and the enemy will try to use any miscalculations to protract the war as much as possible."