Predictions???
Out of context: Reply #92
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- monNom4
China claims to have 'defeated' covid-19 - the 'American virus'. No new cases in official stats for some period. Suddenly, the outbreak re-emerges in China and is blamed on foreign reintroduction, maybe from a regional adversary like Taiwan. China makes the case domestically and to the world that they must secure the homeland by defeating the virus abroad, the same way they did already. Cue regional military action to enforce their 'proven' measures.
There's a timing aspect with this virus. First in first out. The country that conquers it first will have an advantage over those still locked down in the belly of the curve.
On the global stage, as China emerges a few months ahead of the rest of the world, it uses its manufacturing clout to deliver international aid in the form of medical equipment and supplies to favoured nations, and limits export to competitors. This shifts global alliances and strengthens China's existing role on the world stage. Belt and road signatories fare much better due to availability of medical supplies from China.
The US suffers terribly from mass casualties and a devastated economy - many insurers go bankrupt due to the large numbers needing treatment. Lack of public health care leads to much worse outcomes than other industrialized nations. Massive stimulus to industry, and falling tax receipts due to lockdowns lead to unsupportable debt, and the US defaults on debt or experiences rapid inflation as they print their wat out of it. International trade stops being priced in unstable dolllars and starts being priced in the most stable currency at the time. Maybe gold? maybe renminbi? A battered USA must turn to China for aid during the darkest hours and in doing so will need to give up control of economic assets similar to the UK following the second World War.
The USA eventually recovers, but their position on the world stage, and their ability to project power, is never the same. They become like Great Britain. A once global empire now compelled to follow another country's lead.
- Your last paragraph will come to pass anyway, but one thing about the US is its ability to mobilise and it 70 odd years of eternal war footing/manufacturin...Nairn
- I don't trust Trump to lead, but I do 'trust' the MilitaryIndustrialCo... that's been running laps around the rest of the world since long before we were bornNairn
- I don't put much faith in the MIC. Look a Boeing. Incompetence propped up by guaranteed contracts and regulatory capture. Too big to fail.monNom
- But yes, all else being equal, the USA military is nothing to triffle with.monNom
- One thing about an emergency is that it gets the engineers and thinkers back in the loop, rather than bottom-line focused mngnmt, which was Boeing's problemNairn
- I would read this bookyuekit