North Korea vs USA soon?

Out of context: Reply #24

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  • nadanada0

    i think the thing to remember here is that, outside of pyongyang, it is near-anarchy. there is no food distribution and hardly any military or police presence, other than to crack down on dissent and make sure the black markets don't overstep their bounds. you could literally murder someone in the middle of the street in broad daylight and as long as you had some rice or a few packs of cigarettes, no one would care.

    also - the military is literally starving. there are reports of waves of migrants traveling over the border with china - nothing new - but it's a lot easier now, as every government agent can be bribed with any sort of food item. the UN / US / ROK aid that arrives in the DPRK gets filtered through the ruling class in pyongyang, then the military's top brass - who, in turn, steal it on government trucks and sell it at double the market rate to small black-market entrepreneurs - who then sell it back to the very few people who can afford it.

    there are hardly any forests or trees left in the populated areas of the DPRK because they've been chopped down for heat. there are no more pets - they've all been eaten. bark is a common food item.

    ...there's no way the DPRK's army could fight it's way through anything - and their missile tech is so badly outdated it would make it tens of miles before being destroyed by US / JSDF antimissile cannons.

    the ROK could absorb the costs of reunification and any sort of conflict within ONE WEEK of daily international trade - and DPRK knows this. that's why this is all blustery positioning.

    there are two ways this whole situation could go, in my mind. (and i am obsessed with learning everything about the DPRK - blame my mild asperger's)

    1. the military junta of the DPRK realizes that the ruling days of the Kims are falling apart, and that the entire nation exists to benefit and enrich three people - Kim Jong Un, and his aunt and uncle (Kim Jong Il's sister and brother-in-law). they seize power, turn the cult of personality towards themselves (or gradually dismantle it) and turn the country into a military dictatorship much like burma / myanmar - while toning down the anti-everyone rhetoric to try and regain some exterior trade and industrial investment.

    2. the common people of the DPRK, as they gradually learn about the outside world through increased border porosity with china, break out in small regionally-isolated revolts until the ruling class decides to broker a deal with ROK / china / US / russia / japan - they retreat into exile with no punishments whatsoever, and they leave the mess for the UN and everyone else to clean up. essentially, it would be an iraq apres-war situation - lawlessness, hungry / long-suffering people and a government to completely assemble from scratch.

    obviously, #2 is near-impossible and waaaaay out there. but #1 is no far from possibility.

    read 'the impossible state' by victor cha - totally enthralling, or boring depending on your interests.

    nadanada 0Permalink
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